So... You're Telling Me There’s a Chance

Stratocumulus clouds are streaming in from the northwest across the Wasatch Front this morning. These clouds are the last remnants of the "warm storm"/AR event from Tuesday-Wednesday of this week. Not very cold out there for February, with the valleys bottoming out in the low 40s for the most part. Yesterday the valley highs topped out in the low 60s, which is 10+ degrees above average. Month to date SLC is running about six degrees above average. 

GOES-19 East True color imagery over northern Utah 2/26/2026. Stratocumulus clouds stream over the Wasatch, with visible gravity wave clouds embedded in the flow.

Damages from this last storm? 

For one, the warm temps and rain have caused the snow cover in the foothills and even mountains to disappear or at least retreated to higher elevations. Rain fell as high as 9000' in the Wasatch and only marginally dipped below that yesterday morning (~8000'). Until this morning, some locations < 9000' hadn't dropped below freezing since Monday. 

The higher elevations (> 8000') picked up anywhere from 6-12" of snow, with accumulations for Alta 11", Solitude 7", and Brighton at 9". Some lower mountain locations haven't reported snow amounts, so it may of largely just been rain there. The storm event total liquid was somewhere around 1-2" for the upper Wasatch. Total liquid was composed of a combination of rain and very wet heavy snow, so can't get an exact snow to water ratio. However, I would estimate the snow to water ratio was around 6:1 for the snow that did fall. That's East Coast snow ratios. The Wasatch Front valleys picked up around 0.5-0.75" of rain, bringing our month to date total in SLC to 0.97" of precip. Average for the month of February is 1.3" liquid, so probably will still finish out the month drier than average.

Interesting Outlook

While the storm this week was a bit wonky, there may be some more interesting winter weather to look forward to the beginning to mid March (~3/4-3/12). However, I say this with many caveats and a healthy amount of uncertainty. Ensembles and deterministic models alike are hinting at a large scale troughing regime setting up across the Intermountain West/Utah come the end of the first week of March through the middle of the month. The 7-day ECMWF Ensemble 500 mb height anomaly below reveals troughing (blue colors) forming over the Intermountain region something between 3/4-3/12/2026. 

00Z ECMWF ENS 2/26/2026 7-day 500 mb height anomaly for the period 3/4-3/16/2026. Blue colors indicate negative anomalies, and potential for troughing

Multiple waves of energy and moisture have the potential to progress out of the northwest through this period. If the trough develops and orients similar to what the models are hinting, it could spell a relatively extended active and cold period across Utah. As always, anything in model space more than 3-5 days in the future should come with lots of uncertainty and skepticism. This is no different, but ensembles have been trending on this pattern transition for a few days. Ensemble trends add some very limited confidence, which is the only reason I dare bring any of this up. But if this trough, or even the shortwaves progressing through it, diverges slightly it could spell a less than exciting storm cycle than what is being alluded to currently. I try not to rub the crystal ball too much when forecasting, but it seems like I am going against my better judgement. So, there is a chance but it's heavily TBD. 

00Z ECMWF ENS Total Precipitation (in) plume for KSLC Feb through mid March.