Warm West - Cold East

It's been feeling more like March than early February across Utah the past 4-5 days. Highs in the 50s along the Wasatch Front and sunny skies. Even the birds are chirping more and a few flower bulbs are starting to creep out of the ground. Today temps will once again climb into the low 50s F for most Wasatch Front valley locations, with  highs in the upper 30s and low 40s for much of the mountain areas. The satellite loop below outlines the dome of high pressure across the western U.S. and the accompanying storm track across Canada down into the upper Great Plains. 

GOES-18 West True Color with Water Vapor imagery overlay 2/4/2026. The rex block pattern is noted (high over low)

A strong upper-level ridge and blocking pattern (rex block) has set-up shop across the western U.S. 500 mb heights (~5820 m) associated with this ridge over Utah look to have broken the record maximum observed 500 mb (5785 m) at KSLC for today (2/4). Anomalies are presented below. Warm colors indicated anomalously higher heights than normal. Heights > 5800 m are more common in the late spring and summer than in February, so very abnormal for this time of year.

12Z ECMWF 2/4/2026 - 500 mb height anomaly for 2/4/2026

For background, heights of a pressure surface increase as the mean temperature of the air in the column below it increases - based on the hypsometric equation for the atmosphere. This pattern has been keeping conditions dry and abnormally warm for the West, but has been conducive for surges of artic air and winter storm tracks to dive south and east over the middle and eastern areas of the U.S. I have been calling this pattern a "Dipole pattern" but is also known as the "Warm West and Cold East pattern". 

Analyzed 500 mb heights and temperatures (C) 12Z 2/4/2026. Upper-level and temperature pattern overlays  

PRISM Daily mean temperature (F) anomaly for 2/1-2/3/2026. Warm West and Cold East

When Will Utah See Weather Again?

Utah weather event timeline 2/4-2/19/2026

There's lots of hype online about a pattern switch arriving next workweek and what that means weatherwise across the western U.S. Ensembles have continued to trend for a pattern shift come sometime 2/9-2/13/2026, but detailing out precipitation amounts and timing are still a fool's errand.  The ensemble 500 mb heights for 2/10/2026 and the 5-day 500 height anomaly for the period 2/11-2/16/25026 below identify a troughing pattern setting up across the West. 

While there is growing confidence that the stubborn ridge and blocking pattern will weaken/dissipate 2/9-2/13/2026, confidence is low in terms of how weather specifics will play out. The available analysis generally reveals that a cooler and more active period can be expected going into mid February for Utah. That's not saying awfully much, considering any conditions other than the present would be cooler or more active, but it is nice to know there may be an end to the stale weather. The ensemble ECWMF precipitation plume below notes the potential for a few waves of moisture mid month. I would not focus on exact precip numbers at this point, but note the general timing and magnitude of each wave.

12Z ECMWF ENS 2/4/2026 Total QPF plume for KSLC

We can gain another perspective on forecasting this pattern change by looking at the Pacific North American (PNA) signal. In the image below, the ECMWF ENS PNA index is given and reveals the PNA going negative around 2/9-2/10/2026 and staying negative through the third week of February. A negative PNA index indicates a troughing pattern setting up over the U.S. Pacific coast and a corresponding active/stormy pattern.  

12Z ECMWF ENS PNA Index 2/4-2/19/2026

Still a lot to be figured out for next week's forecast, but there is a buzz of hope that precip in the frozen form is in store for the Utah mountains in the near-ish future. As horrible of a winter the West has had, we will need a very wet end of February and March to get back to a manageable position snowpack-wise. A snow drought could potentially create a cascade of impacts, including creating a bad dust and fire season across the western U.S., not to mention the significant strain it would put on agricultural and residential water resources. February and March are traditionally wetter months for Utah, so let's hope that stays true this year... 

I'll leave this here...

SNOTEL Percent Median SWE as of 2/4/2026