April Snow Showers

Fairly mild in the Salt Lake Valley this morning, with winds shifting to the north and temps in the low 50s. Orographically induced stratus clouds edge across the northern Utah valleys but seem to hang over the Wasatch mountains. Clouds are moving SW to NE, indicating upper level winds are out of the SW. Typically, when clouds features like this exist, you can deduce winds at mid to upper levels of the atmosphere are moving quickly and the weather may be shifting soon. This is indeed the case as shortwave trough and cold front will be moving over the Wasatch Front come late morning into the afternoon. 

GOES-18 West True Color Imagery 4/16/2026. Focused over northern Utah, showing orographic stratus clouds ahead of the next storm

Currently, the cold frontal boundary sits just north and west of the SL Valley over the GSL. As seen in the visible satellite imagery below, this front is associated with a shortwave trough that has stretched south over the Great Basin off of a larger and more pronounced system/circulation over Montana and southern Canada. The main front will progress across the northern Utah valleys by late morning, with a band of valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers filling in along and behind the front. A very sharp temperature gradient exists along the frontal boundary, giving the front strong baroclinic characteristics and producing a region of strong frontogenesis along the front - tightening of temperature and pressure gradients that strengthen a front, low pressure system, and precipitation formation.

GOES-19 East True Color Imagery with 500 mb winds, heights, and vorticity overlaid. A broad circulation and trough spins across the U.S. and Canadian border with some energy shearing south over the Great Basin.

Although the shortwave energy and upper-level jet dynamics are supportive of lift and precipitation formation, moisture with this system will be a limiting factor. The bulk of the moisture will remain with the main system/circulation well to the north, with most of the precipitation in Utah oriented along a SW to NW band as the front moves over this afternoon. The front/band will translated NW to SE across the state through Friday morning (4/17/2026), bringing valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers. There will likely be a few hours of rain/snow and snow showers over the valleys this afternoon before things taper off by early evening. Periods of moderate to heavy snow showers are possible, particularly along and just behind the main frontal boundary.

ECMWF 00Z 4/16/2026 four-panel forecast 34/16-3/17/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation type; 300 mb gph and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds 

As the trough axis passes over northern Utah tonight into Friday morning, winds will shift NW and strong cold air advection will cool 700 mb temps as low as -13 to -14 C. The combination of NW winds and very cold air overlaying the relatively warm GSL will bring the potential for some lake enhanced/lake effect snow showers across locations from Tooele over to the west side of the SL Valley. 

ECMWF 00Z 4/16/2026 12-hr Snow Accumulation (in) for northern Utah Friday morning. Band of accumulations are associated with potential lake effect snow.

As far as snow totals go, I don't expect much if any accumulation in the valley areas. Maybe a dusting or brief slush up during the day Thursday if rates are heavy enough. However, once the snow slows or stops, anything on the ground will melt. Temperatures will drop considerably behind the front, but are only expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Overnight temperatures in the valleys could dip below freezing, with the possibility of a dusting or dusting+ for locations impacted by any lake effect showers (see above figure). Otherwise, impacts from the wintry weather will be minimal in the valleys, but you may want to bring in those early April flowers tonight and Friday night. Not a significant storm in terms of liquid. Most Utah areas will see anywhere from 0.1-0.5" of total liquid through the storm event. That's not a ton, but at this point every drop counts, so the April flowers and Utah will take it. 

ECMWF ENS 06Z 4/16/2026 Total Snow Accumulation (in) for Alta, UT 4/16-4/22/2026

The mountains could see 3-6" of snow through Friday morning, so nothing crazy. The Cottonwoods will likely win out (see above figure), but at this point I'm not sure how much it matters. There probably is still some pockets of decent skiing very high up if you go searching hard for it, but I think most people are already well into spring mode...

Seasonal Whiplash

Postmortem: March 2026 Heat Wave

I have been on a hiatus from this blog the past few weeks and during that time unprecedented, unparalleled, unmatched, extraordinary, and unequaled warmth has been the norm for Utah and much of the Western U.S. The daily mean temperature anomaly shown below reveals the average temperature for March 2026 has been 10-16+ degrees F above normal across the West - and that is anomalies from the daily mean temperature (average of daily low+high). I would go as far and say the record warmth has been beyond unprecedented or any word of equal meaning. Record warmth is not the correct descriptor, it has been record heat - heat equal to what the region observes climatologically in June or even July. 

PRISM derived month to date daily mean temperature anomaly for March 2026

These conditions have been so out of the ordinary they can't even be called abnormal. I have been at a loss for words when attempting to encapsulate this not so normal-abnormal period. The only words I think that are fitting to describe the heat we have seen in the Western U.S. in March 2026 are unhinged, transcendent, and epoch-making. We have crossed a barrier and by such a degree we may now lie in a new era of weather and climate across the West. I wish I had time to talk about the laundry list of interesting topics, regarding the extended period extremely unseasonable warmth, but the list is too long and so I will only briefly touch on a few on the list. 

Top 10 warmest March days at KSLC

March 2026 had six of the top ten warmest March days on record for Salt Lake City, with five of those days being 80 F or above. The average March temperature in 2026 was 65.4 F. The normal average March temperature for Salt Lake City is 55 F, so 2026 was 10 F above normal. That's is a large departure when dealing with averages. The record heat on top of an already abnormally warm winter has created the worst/lowest snowpack on record across Utah. The black solid line in the figure below shows the current average SWE across the state of Utah, which has precipitously dropped about 5" during the great melt off the past two weeks. Currently, Utah SWE sits at about 2.5". The average SWE for the end of March should be around 14". A new unimaginable low that spells a road of cascading problems going into the climatological warm season. Not great when peak runoff occurs in late March or early April. This can spell dire circumstances for water managers and agriculture. Not to mention the drying Great Salt Lake. 

Snow Water Equivalent for Utah as of 3/31/2026

A Quick Seasonal Shift

There is a bit of short-term relief on the way. As many have likely seen on the news, a pattern shift is in store for Utah and parts of the West today going through the late workweek. In brief, a one two hit from two troughs/disturbances will bring cooler and wetter conditions across Utah. The first disturbance or wave of energy will impact the state late Tuesday through Wednesday  (3/31-4/1/2026). A cold front will translate over the state Tuesday night, with precipitation filling in behind it. There looks to be a fair amount of moisture with this system. Storm total liquid precipitation could end up in the 1-2" range for northern Utah. 

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: 700 mb heights, temperature (C), winds, and RH 3/31-4/4/2026

Valleys will see rain and snow is possible for the higher mountain elevations - rain/snowline possibly near 8500-9000' to start Tuesday night before dropping near 7000-7500' by Wednesday afternoon. Total snow accumulations for the upper elevations of the Wasatch are forecasted for the 10-12+" range. 

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: Total Precipitation (in) 3/31-4/2/2026

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: Total Snow Accumulation (in) 3/31-4/2/2026

After a brief slow down and lull in precip late Wednesday afternoon, precip picks up - mainly in the mountains- again Wednesday evening/night ahead of the next disturbance. Periods of valley rain and mountain snow showers are possible into early Thursday before the main cold front moves over the northern tier of the state Thursday morning. A heavier band of rain/snow showers is expected along the frontal boundary. A mix of rain/snow and graupel is likely down to the valleys as the front moves over. Not as much moisture is expected with this second storm, however, colder air will filter in behind this disturbance and there will be greater coverage of snow in the mountains. Liquid precip amounts look to be in the 0.5-1" range, with additional snow accumulations for areas 8000'+ somewhere around 10-12"+. All said and done, by the end of the work week the favored Wasatch mountain locations like the Cottonwoods could see 20-30"+ of snowfall.

ECMWF ENS 06Z 3/31/2026 Total Snow Accumulation (in) for Alta, Utah

A period N-NW flow is even possible Thursday into Friday, which could enhance precip in the Wasatch. There is the potential for snow/graupel to mix in down to valley levels come Thursday into Friday morning as 700 mb temps dip to -9 to -11 C. Conditions Thursday and Friday seem to be primed for spring time convective graupel/snow showers, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates as the front and trough axis passes over. Nevertheless, no significant - if any - snow accumulations are expected for the valleys. But, I wouldn't put it out of the question that light and short-lived dusting or “graupeling” is possible in the foothills. Thursday and Friday will be the coldest period since the beginning of March, so bring that coat and pants back out of the closet. 

Conditions dry out by late Friday as a ridge builds back over the state. Temperatures moderate over the Easter weekend, and by early next workweek northern Utah valleys could be back into the low 70s. The freshly fallen snow in the mountains will likely only be temporary as temps warm back up. There's the potential for some heightened runoff after this storm cycle, so watch for fast flowing streams and rivers.

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026 Max and Min temperature forecast for SLC, UT

First-ish Spring (+)

A week ago northern Utah was seeing the end of it’s latest winter storm. The storm over-performed in some locations like the upper Cottonwoods, with 30”+ of snow observed at Alta and Snowbird. Even the SL Valley saw more prolonged snowfall than originally forecasted. However, only limited valley accumulations occurred due to above freezing temperatures. Since then, mild temperatures have largely returned. 

Storm snow and precipitation total accumulation (in) 3/4-3/6/3026

Snow water equivalent (SWE) levels saw a marginal bump from last week’s storm (~1-2”), with Cottonwood SNOTEL sites > 8000’ now seeing 85-90% of average SWE for this time of year. The story is quite different < 8000’, where SWE is largely below 30-50% of normal. At a statewide level the story is even more grim, with the current Utah SWE the lowest on record. Not great. SWE levels will likely take a big hit in the next 7-10 days as dry and very warm temperatures are forecasted. 

Utah average SWE on 3/13/2026. Lowest level to date on record.

This workweek started very mild with our first official 70 degree day observed in SLC on Monday (3/9). Conditions cooled a bit as a dry cold front slid south across the northern third of the state Tuesday-Wednesday (3/10-3/11). Mostly sunny this morning with some high and thin cirrus. Valleys bottomed out near 40 F. Today and tomorrow temperatures will rebound well above average into the 60s F for the Wasatch valleys, as an upper level ridge builds across the western U.S. A trough will graze the state Saturday into Sunday, bringing a slight cool down and small potential for some precipitation to northern Utah. As far as potential snow accumulations, they will be only for elevations > 8500-9000’ and not significant.

The Main Story

The headline story is short and sweet or maybe not very sweet depending on your preferences: Potential record warmth across Utah (3/16-3/22). Highs in the 70s to low 80s F for the Wasatch Front valleys by mid to late next week. The cause? An abnormally strong blob of high pressure will center over the West. Currently, the Ensemble ECMWF model is forecasting 500 mb heights around 590 dm over Utah by 3/18. 

ECMWF ENS 12z 3/23/2026 ensemble forecasted high and low temps for Salt Lake City, Utah 3/13-3/28/2036

The figure below shows the progression of the 500 mb height 5-day anomalies over the next 10 days. The warm colors in the figure identify abnormally high heights or a deep column of warmer than normal air. Lots of warm colors centered over Utah. Prepare for “first spring” or maybe even “first spring +”. It was a strange winter with record warmth and now spring may start the same….

ECMWF ENS 12z 3/23/2026 5-day 500 mb height anomaly. Warm colors represent abnormally high heights 

Second Round

A few interesting cloud features out there this morning, hinting that there's a bit more mixing and turbulence in the atmosphere. Photo below shows some weak Kelvin Helmholtz wave clouds over the south end of the GSL. A cold front moved through over night with an attendant band of precipitation. Most precip fell as rain in the valleys before briefly changing over to snow as precip largely came to an end. Some lingering snow showers remain across areas along the Wasatch Front, mainly up towards Ogden, with some minor grassy accumulations observed there. The Wasatch mountains have picked up a few inches of snow thus far. Nothing super impressive, but more to come later.

Ill formed KH wave clouds over the southern marshes of the GSL 3/5/2026

Second Round

A brief lull or slow down in showers is expected this morning, but a few residual snow showers are likely to hang on in areas. Any accumulations will melt off quickly once precip stops as temps will remain above freezing. The next wave of trailing moisture and energy arrives this afternoon and evening. Valley and mountain snow shower activity will increase during this period, with the mountains potentially benefiting from a northwesterly flow regime. 

GOES-18 East True Color Imagery with 500 mb heights, winds, and vorticity overlaid. Blue arrow represents progression of shortwave.

Satellite imagery reveals the main trough circulation still remains to the north across southern Idaho. The center of this trough/circulation will skirt to the north of Utah across ID, WY, and MT, but a secondary shortwave embedded in the flow will pinch off and continue to progress S-SE over the Wasatch Front later today. The colder pocket of air associated with this shortwave and the accompanying northwesterly flow could produce a period of enhanced orographic snow in the Wasatch, with snow to water ratios of around 15 to 20:1 for the higher elevations as 700 mb temps bottom out around -10 to -11 C. Not super cold but colder than the last few storms for sure. 

Forecasted 700 mb heights, winds, temp (C), and RH for 1500 MST 3/5/2026. Shortwave trough axis and general flow outlined.

The moisture and cooler temps from the northwest could help with snow totals in the mountains, but there's uncertainty on how long winds remain truly northwesterly, which could decrease mountain snow accumulations. In total, another 0.2-0.6" of liquid and 4-10+" of snow is possible in the Wasatch mountains. The Wasatch valley areas could see light accumulations on the order of a dusting to 1" Thursday evening into Friday morning as snow showers continue through that period. Otherwise, showers taper off through Friday morning. Conditions dry out late Friday across the mountains as lingering light snow showers are possible through the afternoon. 

Lake Effect Possible

HRRR 15Z 3/5/2026 forecast KSLC sounding for 0400 Z 3/6/2026 (2100 MST 3/5/2026)

Models are trending for winds to shift more northerly and increase sometime Thursday evening into Friday morning. This in combination with continued low to mid-level moisture availability could produces some lake effect or lake enhanced showers to the south of the GSL overnight Thursday. The HRRR forecast KSLC sounding above reveals strengthening northerly winds from the surface to 700 mb along with some lake induce instability (grey curved line) and available low to mid-level moisture (RH on left). If these lake effect showers develop, the Tooele and western SL valleys areas look to be the focus of impacts, with a few inches of snow accumulations possible by Friday morning. 

It Rained - Snow Incoming

Low stratocumulus clouds hang over the Wasatch Front this morning as the punchy system from yesterday exits the state to the east. The center of the circulation can be seen in western Colorado in the visible satellite imagery below. The combination of some light cold air advection and wet bulbing yesterday evening brought snow levels down around 5000-5500' for a short period. I think only some light and temporary accumulations were observed along the higher bench areas. Otherwise, temperatures actually warmed from the low 30s in the valleys last night to the upper 30s and low 40s this morning. Likely due to end of the precip.

GOES-18 East True Color imagery 3/3/2026. Image is centered over the northern half of Utah.

All said and done, the northern valleys received - at least in Utah standards - a healthy amount of rainfall. It was truly a rainy day yesterday, which is rare in these parts. Total precip totals for the northern half of the SL valley up through Cache valley came out to 0.75-1.5". The northern and central Wasatch mountains received 1-2"+ of liquid and about 6-10" of snow, generally > 7000'. 

Snow and precipitation totals (in) for the Wasatch Mtns

This morning the rain/snow has ended and conditions have largely dried out in the lower elevations. Some lingering light snow showers continue in the mountains, but these will dissipate as the morning goes on. A mix of clouds and sun are expected for the late morning into the afternoon across the northern tier of the state. Temperatures should warm into the upper 40s and low 50s for the Wasatch Front valleys. 

The Next Storm

Timeline of Utah weather events 3/3-3/11/2026

A transient ridge will build over Utah Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing dry and mild conditions back to the state. Temperatures will likely top out in the low 60s F (10+ degrees above normal) for the Wasatch Front valleys  on Wednesday, due to a bit of warm air advection out ahead of the next storm. The next storm is sitting out in the Gulf of Alaska at the moment. It will progress southeast into the PNW on Wednesday before sliding down into the Great Basin and across Utah by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

GOES-19 West True Color imagery 3/3/2026. Location of storm/center of circulation and approximate trajectory overlaid.

This looks to be a colder storm than the one the previous few days, with maritime polar airmass characteristics. A somewhat substantial cold front looks to slide across northern Utah Wednesday night, dropping 700 mb temps to -10 to -12 C by Thursday. These temperatures will translate into snow levels falling down to valley floors at times, with rain/snow and snow showers expected Thursday. However, truly cold air will be lacking near the surface, so snow accumulations in the valleys will likely only be minor grassy/raised accumulations and temporary. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in the low 40s for most valley locations. If showers keep up through Thursday evening, some minor additional valley accumulations are possible, but nothing significant. 

ECMWF 12Z 3/3/2026 four-panel forecast 3/3-3/7/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation type; 300 mb gph and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds 

For the Wasatch mountains, this storm could provide a decent amount of liquid and more efficient snow making due to the colder temperatures and directionality. There looks to be a period northwesterly flow associated with this storm on Thursday, which could provide a period of enhanced orographic lift for  favored mountain locations (Cottonwoods). The mountains always seem to over perform if the northwesterly flow sets up. Ensemble models are putting total liquid amounts in the range of 0.5-1+" for the mountains. Going off of the 700 mb temps during the storm (-10 to -12 C), this could potentially translate into snow to water ratios of 15:1 to 20:1 and 10-20" of snow in the mountains > 7000'. 

ECMWF ENS 00Z 3/3/2026 Total Precipitation (in) for Alta, UT

This storm could provide a healthy dosing of snow to the Wasatch, if it comes together nicely. Some uncertainty still remains about how the storm translates across the state, which will impact the period winds remain northwesterly. There are some signs that the trough could close off a bit as it digs south, which would disrupt the stream of moisture and cooler air over Utah. Conditions look to dry out by Friday, as the storm shears and splits, with one circulation moving to the southwest and the other progressing to the east. 

Long Range

Conditions warm up again for this weekend, with temperatures moderating each day. Very mild weather returns by Monday as winds increase out of the south ahead of the next potential storm sometime between 3/10-3/11/2026. Confidence is still low on this storm, but it could bring another shot of colder air and possibly some moisture. TBD...

So... You're Telling Me There’s a Chance

Stratocumulus clouds are streaming in from the northwest across the Wasatch Front this morning. These clouds are the last remnants of the "warm storm"/AR event from Tuesday-Wednesday of this week. Not very cold out there for February, with the valleys bottoming out in the low 40s for the most part. Yesterday the valley highs topped out in the low 60s, which is 10+ degrees above average. Month to date SLC is running about six degrees above average. 

GOES-19 East True color imagery over northern Utah 2/26/2026. Stratocumulus clouds stream over the Wasatch, with visible gravity wave clouds embedded in the flow.

Damages from this last storm? 

For one, the warm temps and rain have caused the snow cover in the foothills and even mountains to disappear or at least retreated to higher elevations. Rain fell as high as 9000' in the Wasatch and only marginally dipped below that yesterday morning (~8000'). Until this morning, some locations < 9000' hadn't dropped below freezing since Monday. 

The higher elevations (> 8000') picked up anywhere from 6-12" of snow, with accumulations for Alta 11", Solitude 7", and Brighton at 9". Some lower mountain locations haven't reported snow amounts, so it may of largely just been rain there. The storm event total liquid was somewhere around 1-2" for the upper Wasatch. Total liquid was composed of a combination of rain and very wet heavy snow, so can't get an exact snow to water ratio. However, I would estimate the snow to water ratio was around 6:1 for the snow that did fall. That's East Coast snow ratios. The Wasatch Front valleys picked up around 0.5-0.75" of rain, bringing our month to date total in SLC to 0.97" of precip. Average for the month of February is 1.3" liquid, so probably will still finish out the month drier than average.

Interesting Outlook

While the storm this week was a bit wonky, there may be some more interesting winter weather to look forward to the beginning to mid March (~3/4-3/12). However, I say this with many caveats and a healthy amount of uncertainty. Ensembles and deterministic models alike are hinting at a large scale troughing regime setting up across the Intermountain West/Utah come the end of the first week of March through the middle of the month. The 7-day ECMWF Ensemble 500 mb height anomaly below reveals troughing (blue colors) forming over the Intermountain region something between 3/4-3/12/2026. 

00Z ECMWF ENS 2/26/2026 7-day 500 mb height anomaly for the period 3/4-3/16/2026. Blue colors indicate negative anomalies, and potential for troughing

Multiple waves of energy and moisture have the potential to progress out of the northwest through this period. If the trough develops and orients similar to what the models are hinting, it could spell a relatively extended active and cold period across Utah. As always, anything in model space more than 3-5 days in the future should come with lots of uncertainty and skepticism. This is no different, but ensembles have been trending on this pattern transition for a few days. Ensemble trends add some very limited confidence, which is the only reason I dare bring any of this up. But if this trough, or even the shortwaves progressing through it, diverges slightly it could spell a less than exciting storm cycle than what is being alluded to currently. I try not to rub the crystal ball too much when forecasting, but it seems like I am going against my better judgement. So, there is a chance but it's heavily TBD. 

00Z ECMWF ENS Total Precipitation (in) plume for KSLC Feb through mid March. 

Warm Storm

We had it for a bit. We had it and now it's gone. No, I'm not referring to the regrets felt during a breakup. We had what felt like real winter for about half a week and now it's all but disappeared. In fact, it may be in the rearview for quite some time.

Weekend in Review

12Z 2/22/2026 500 mb heights and temperature analysis from this past weekend. Ridge axis overlaid in red.

The weekend warmed up nicely as a longwave ridge setup across the western U.S. There were some great bluebird conditions, and what seems like a relatively strong sun, to enjoy the fresh snow from last week's storm. It's already late February, which means the sun is much higher than what it was at the winter solstice. Daylight hours in SLC have extended from near 9 hours in late December to 11 hours at present (2/23) and the sun maxes out about 10 degrees higher in the sky. The combination of the sun and warmer temps this weekend brought hints of spring, and more "spring-like" weather is in the forecast. 

The Workweek and a Bit Beyond

GOES-19 East from 2/23/2026 with 500 mb winds, heights, and vorticity overlaid

The upper level ridge remains firmly centered across Utah, with high clouds streaming in over the state from the west. Mostly sunny conditions with warmer temps and high clouds are expected for Monday. Tuesday remains warm with increasing clouds and winds out of the south. 

Timeline of northern Utah weather events 2/23-2/29/2026

This week we only have one storm on the docket for Utah, and it will be warmer. The upper-level ridge in place now across the western U.S. will be quite stubborn. An atmospheric river (AR) will come across the top of the ridge early to mid-week, progressing into Utah Tuesday-Wednesday (2/24-2/25/2026). As is usual with AR's, they are capricious and somewhat fitful, particularly for Utah. They can provide significant amounts of moisture or just be a tease. They can also be accompanied by warmer airmasses, which can spell heavier snow and higher snow levels. This AR looks to be sourced from subtropical origins to the southeast of Hawaii. Two lows spinning out in the Pacific will facilitate the transport of moisture into the western U.S., but the lows will remain far out to sea. This will keep the flow southwesterly to westerly along the western seaboard and conditions warm. 

GOES-19 West True Color imagery 2/23/2026. Low pressure centers and estimated AR transport overlaid

Flow increases out of the southwest on Tuesday, bringing some warm air advection and increased low to mid-level temperatures across Utah. AR moisture and energy begins to progress over the top of the ridge into Utah come late Tuesday into Wednesday, flattening the ridge some. Two streams of moisture will merge across Utah - one of a more southerly origin and one from a more northerly direction - and a strong jet max will slide south over the northern tier of the state. The moisture confluence/transport and jet dynamics should enhance large scale lift across the northern third of the state, producing a healthy amount of precipitation over the Wasatch Front mountains and possible the valleys. However, much of this will remain in liquid form rather than frozen. At the tail end of the storm on Wednesday, a shortwave trough will graze the state, bringing some cooler air but unfortunately nothing significant. 

ECMWF 00Z 2/23/2026 four-panel forecast 2/23-2/26/2026: (Top left to bottom right) 850-700 mb vertical velocity; 300 mb gph, winds, and divergence; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; MSLP, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation type

In the four panel plot above, 850-700 mb vertical velocity, 700 mb moisture, and 300 mb divergence are shown. The areas where the warmer colors in the 850-700 mb and 300 mb figures (yellow, orange, reds) overlap with 700 mb moisture (green) outline the locations of greatest forecasted lift and potential for precipitation.

12Z ECMWF 2/23/2026 forecasted 700 mb temperatures (C) (2/23-2/25/2026)

The pattern through the course of the storm will largely remain more zonal (west to east) rather than northwesterly or northerly. This means not much cold air will make it's way into Utah and snow levels will remain fairly high. 700 mb temps will oscillate around 0-+1 C late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, translating to snow levels as high as 8000-8500' at the beginning of the storm. The marginal push of cooler air late Wednesday looks to bring 700 mb temps down to around -3 to -4 C, with the rain/snow line dropping down to around 7000' (loop above). But by this time, most of the moisture will be exiting the region. Precipitation shuts down in the Wasatch by the second half of Wednesday night, with dry conditions returning Thursday morning. 

00Z ENS ECMWF 2/23/2026 Total snow accumulation (in) at Alta, Utah.

Snow totals in the higher elevations will be depressed due to the warmer conditions, and the bases of most of the ski resorts will likely see rain or at least a rain/snow mix at some point during this storm. Not exactly fun. Liquid totals will range from 1-2", with total snow accumulations ranging from 6-12"+ for elevations above 7000-8000'. Snow accumulations will be heavily dependent on the oscillating rain/snow line. 

Looking Ahead

A break in storm activity is expected Thursday through Friday, with milder temperatures continuing. Another shot of AR moisture and energy is possible this weekend to close out February (2/28-2/29), but once again it looks to have warmer storm characteristics. Rubbing the crystal ball, the ensemble ECMWF and GFS projects that the first week of March will be quiet with above normal temperatures. We're getting closer and closer to actual spring and winter is now slipping through our fingers, mainly in the valleys. However, big winter storms are not uncommon in March and even April, so there's still time... maybe... 

00Z ENS ECMWF 2/23/2026 forecasted highs and lows (F) for SLC