So... You're Telling Me There’s a Chance

Stratocumulus clouds are streaming in from the northwest across the Wasatch Front this morning. These clouds are the last remnants of the "warm storm"/AR event from Tuesday-Wednesday of this week. Not very cold out there for February, with the valleys bottoming out in the low 40s for the most part. Yesterday the valley highs topped out in the low 60s, which is 10+ degrees above average. Month to date SLC is running about six degrees above average. 

GOES-19 East True color imagery over northern Utah 2/26/2026. Stratocumulus clouds stream over the Wasatch, with visible gravity wave clouds embedded in the flow.

Damages from this last storm? 

For one, the warm temps and rain have caused the snow cover in the foothills and even mountains to disappear or at least retreated to higher elevations. Rain fell as high as 9000' in the Wasatch and only marginally dipped below that yesterday morning (~8000'). Until this morning, some locations < 9000' hadn't dropped below freezing since Monday. 

The higher elevations (> 8000') picked up anywhere from 6-12" of snow, with accumulations for Alta 11", Solitude 7", and Brighton at 9". Some lower mountain locations haven't reported snow amounts, so it may of largely just been rain there. The storm event total liquid was somewhere around 1-2" for the upper Wasatch. Total liquid was composed of a combination of rain and very wet heavy snow, so can't get an exact snow to water ratio. However, I would estimate the snow to water ratio was around 6:1 for the snow that did fall. That's East Coast snow ratios. The Wasatch Front valleys picked up around 0.5-0.75" of rain, bringing our month to date total in SLC to 0.97" of precip. Average for the month of February is 1.3" liquid, so probably will still finish out the month drier than average.

Interesting Outlook

While the storm this week was a bit wonky, there may be some more interesting winter weather to look forward to the beginning to mid March (~3/4-3/12). However, I say this with many caveats and a healthy amount of uncertainty. Ensembles and deterministic models alike are hinting at a large scale troughing regime setting up across the Intermountain West/Utah come the end of the first week of March through the middle of the month. The 7-day ECMWF Ensemble 500 mb height anomaly below reveals troughing (blue colors) forming over the Intermountain region something between 3/4-3/12/2026. 

00Z ECMWF ENS 2/26/2026 7-day 500 mb height anomaly for the period 3/4-3/16/2026. Blue colors indicate negative anomalies, and potential for troughing

Multiple waves of energy and moisture have the potential to progress out of the northwest through this period. If the trough develops and orients similar to what the models are hinting, it could spell a relatively extended active and cold period across Utah. As always, anything in model space more than 3-5 days in the future should come with lots of uncertainty and skepticism. This is no different, but ensembles have been trending on this pattern transition for a few days. Ensemble trends add some very limited confidence, which is the only reason I dare bring any of this up. But if this trough, or even the shortwaves progressing through it, diverges slightly it could spell a less than exciting storm cycle than what is being alluded to currently. I try not to rub the crystal ball too much when forecasting, but it seems like I am going against my better judgement. So, there is a chance but it's heavily TBD. 

00Z ECMWF ENS Total Precipitation (in) plume for KSLC Feb through mid March. 

Warm Storm

We had it for a bit. We had it and now it's gone. No, I'm not referring to the regrets felt during a breakup. We had what felt like real winter for about half a week and now it's all but disappeared. In fact, it may be in the rearview for quite some time.

Weekend in Review

12Z 2/22/2026 500 mb heights and temperature analysis from this past weekend. Ridge axis overlaid in red.

The weekend warmed up nicely as a longwave ridge setup across the western U.S. There were some great bluebird conditions, and what seems like a relatively strong sun, to enjoy the fresh snow from last week's storm. It's already late February, which means the sun is much higher than what it was at the winter solstice. Daylight hours in SLC have extended from near 9 hours in late December to 11 hours at present (2/23) and the sun maxes out about 10 degrees higher in the sky. The combination of the sun and warmer temps this weekend brought hints of spring, and more "spring-like" weather is in the forecast. 

The Workweek and a Bit Beyond

GOES-19 East from 2/23/2026 with 500 mb winds, heights, and vorticity overlaid

The upper level ridge remains firmly centered across Utah, with high clouds streaming in over the state from the west. Mostly sunny conditions with warmer temps and high clouds are expected for Monday. Tuesday remains warm with increasing clouds and winds out of the south. 

Timeline of northern Utah weather events 2/23-2/29/2026

This week we only have one storm on the docket for Utah, and it will be warmer. The upper-level ridge in place now across the western U.S. will be quite stubborn. An atmospheric river (AR) will come across the top of the ridge early to mid-week, progressing into Utah Tuesday-Wednesday (2/24-2/25/2026). As is usual with AR's, they are capricious and somewhat fitful, particularly for Utah. They can provide significant amounts of moisture or just be a tease. They can also be accompanied by warmer airmasses, which can spell heavier snow and higher snow levels. This AR looks to be sourced from subtropical origins to the southeast of Hawaii. Two lows spinning out in the Pacific will facilitate the transport of moisture into the western U.S., but the lows will remain far out to sea. This will keep the flow southwesterly to westerly along the western seaboard and conditions warm. 

GOES-19 West True Color imagery 2/23/2026. Low pressure centers and estimated AR transport overlaid

Flow increases out of the southwest on Tuesday, bringing some warm air advection and increased low to mid-level temperatures across Utah. AR moisture and energy begins to progress over the top of the ridge into Utah come late Tuesday into Wednesday, flattening the ridge some. Two streams of moisture will merge across Utah - one of a more southerly origin and one from a more northerly direction - and a strong jet max will slide south over the northern tier of the state. The moisture confluence/transport and jet dynamics should enhance large scale lift across the northern third of the state, producing a healthy amount of precipitation over the Wasatch Front mountains and possible the valleys. However, much of this will remain in liquid form rather than frozen. At the tail end of the storm on Wednesday, a shortwave trough will graze the state, bringing some cooler air but unfortunately nothing significant. 

ECMWF 00Z 2/23/2026 four-panel forecast 2/23-2/26/2026: (Top left to bottom right) 850-700 mb vertical velocity; 300 mb gph, winds, and divergence; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; MSLP, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation type

In the four panel plot above, 850-700 mb vertical velocity, 700 mb moisture, and 300 mb divergence are shown. The areas where the warmer colors in the 850-700 mb and 300 mb figures (yellow, orange, reds) overlap with 700 mb moisture (green) outline the locations of greatest forecasted lift and potential for precipitation.

12Z ECMWF 2/23/2026 forecasted 700 mb temperatures (C) (2/23-2/25/2026)

The pattern through the course of the storm will largely remain more zonal (west to east) rather than northwesterly or northerly. This means not much cold air will make it's way into Utah and snow levels will remain fairly high. 700 mb temps will oscillate around 0-+1 C late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, translating to snow levels as high as 8000-8500' at the beginning of the storm. The marginal push of cooler air late Wednesday looks to bring 700 mb temps down to around -3 to -4 C, with the rain/snow line dropping down to around 7000' (loop above). But by this time, most of the moisture will be exiting the region. Precipitation shuts down in the Wasatch by the second half of Wednesday night, with dry conditions returning Thursday morning. 

00Z ENS ECMWF 2/23/2026 Total snow accumulation (in) at Alta, Utah.

Snow totals in the higher elevations will be depressed due to the warmer conditions, and the bases of most of the ski resorts will likely see rain or at least a rain/snow mix at some point during this storm. Not exactly fun. Liquid totals will range from 1-2", with total snow accumulations ranging from 6-12"+ for elevations above 7000-8000'. Snow accumulations will be heavily dependent on the oscillating rain/snow line. 

Looking Ahead

A break in storm activity is expected Thursday through Friday, with milder temperatures continuing. Another shot of AR moisture and energy is possible this weekend to close out February (2/28-2/29), but once again it looks to have warmer storm characteristics. Rubbing the crystal ball, the ensemble ECMWF and GFS projects that the first week of March will be quiet with above normal temperatures. We're getting closer and closer to actual spring and winter is now slipping through our fingers, mainly in the valleys. However, big winter storms are not uncommon in March and even April, so there's still time... maybe... 

00Z ENS ECMWF 2/23/2026 forecasted highs and lows (F) for SLC 

We did it, Joe

We did it... finally, a significant winter storm for Utah. The storm cycle Monday through Thursday morning (2/16-2/19/2026) of this week produced heavy snowfall and appreciable accumulations across much of the state, specifically, the Wasatch Front. It was the storm people have been dreaming and praying for all season, and by the numbers it almost seems like it may be this winter's savior. Unfortunately - by the numbers - that is not the case, but for the moment let's just appreciate the return winter and enjoy the benefits. 

The Storm in Short Review

There's lots to talk about this past weeks storm of the winter, but I am going to go against the urge to delve deep into the details and keep this one simple. 

A front and accompanying band of heavy snow pushed across the state Wednesday morning into the afternoon. While the initial precipitation along this frontal band was heavy, the true heroes of this storm were the orographic and lake enhanced snow showers behind the front. Not many storms this winter have been able to bring in both cold air and moisture from the northwest, which is typically what the Wasatch does best in. Wednesday's storm was able to accomplish this, and for the first time this season we actually witnessed the Wasatch Front winter weather machine in true form. 

Snow and precip totals (in) across the Wasatch mountains 2/16-2/19/2026

Snowfall rates over the course of Wednesday often exceeded 1-2"/hr, which is very heavy and essentially whiteout or near whiteout conditions. Rates and snow accumulations were so heavy that ski resorts had to close and the canyon chaos reached peak levels. Other mountain routes also saw dangerous winter driving conditions, with UDOT busy managing slide offs, crashes, and stuck vehicles. Snow totals from the storm are listed and visualized above and below. But some of the big winners - to no surprise - were Alta, Snowbird, and Brighton, with 36"+ inches of snow observed at each location through the storm cycle. Snow ratios averaged between 10:1 to 15:1 through Wednesday, 

Wasatch Front valley and mountain snow totals (in) 2/16-2/19/2026

Going Forward

Today, northern Utah is getting a bit of a drive by as a weaker system grazes the area. Periods of generally light snow showers will be focused in the mountains, with a few inches of very light 20:1 ratio snow possible. Some heavier bursts are possible going into late morning and afternoon as conditions destabilize a bit. A nice refresher. Going into the weekend, a ridge builds over the state with sunshine and moderating temperatures expected. Looks like some great weather to safely get out into the mountains. There is the potential for a storm early to mid next week, but generally things look to once again be warmer going forward and we once again could be dealing with high snow levels. But we will see. The return to true winter may be short lived for now. 

With all the greatness of deep powder also comes the danger. Mass accumulations of snow in a short time can create dangerous avalanche conditions, and that is the case in the Wasatch after this last storm. Avalanche danger is high and with the snow drought this winter many are itching to get out and enjoy the fresh powder, which is a bad recipe. Reposting a message and forecast avalanche rose from the Utah Avalanche Center forecast this morning (2/20/2026):

"Most accidents and fatalities happen after peak instability. Let’s not add to that number going into this weekend. Return home safely at the end of the day. Avalanche terrain can be avoided, and excellent riding is available on lower-angled slopes. Remember, once you leave a ski resort boundary, you are in the backcountry."

Check out the full forecast in the link and how to read the forecast rose if you have questions. Everyone stay safe out there...

Storms Continue

Yesterday, mild and windy prefrontal conditions set the stage for the first wave in a series of storms scheduled for this workweek. Winds gusted 60+ mph in some locations across the state, with blowing dust for much of the western half of the state. GOES satellite products (RGB dust) highlighted the areas of blowing dust over the West Desert and dry lakebeds/playas yesterday afternoon (loop below).

GOES-18 WEST Dust-RGB product. Dust shows up as 'light blue'.

Top wind gusts in UT 2/16/2026

Tuesdays Storm

Today (2/17/2026) the storm Utah has been anticipating for the last week has arrived - at least in part. A broad longwave trough is stationed along the PNW and Central Pacific coast, aiming an atmospheric river (AR) and associated moist southwesterly flow across the Sierras into the Great Basin region.

GOES-18 WEST mid-level water vapor 2/17/2026

A shortwave trough embedded within the flow passed over Utah earlier today, bringing cooler temperatures and a period of heavier valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers. The main shortwave energy has largely exited the state to the east, but remnant moisture and energy ahead of the next wave have allowed rain/snow showers to continue across northern Utah through the afternoon. With the aid of orographics and some instability, the southwesterly flow has produced the focus of precipitation over mountain areas and portions of the Wasatch-back (Heber Valley). 

UDOT camera view of US-89 near Dear Creek Reservoir/Heber, UT

The resorts in the upper Cottonwoods have picked up around 6" so far from this storm, with snow continuing to accumulate through the evening. A brief slowdown in snowfall is expected in the mountains going into tonight, but will pick back up again early Wednesday morning. 

Storms Continue

Timeline of Utah weather events 2/17-2/22/2026

The next storm is expected to arrive early Wednesday. A more intense region of precipitation will be oriented along a baroclinic zone (cold front), bringing the opportunity for a period of valley and mountain snow sometime mid to late morning. During this period, snow levels will drop down to the valley floors and snowfall rates could reach >1"/hr. Drivers may have to seriously think about winter driving conditions in the valleys for the first time this season. 

ECMWF 12Z 2/17/2026 four-panel forecast 2/17-2/21/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness; 300 mb gph and winds; ; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds

The heaviest and most consistent snow is expected mainly before noon before snow decreases through the afternoon hours and becomes more showery. Mid-level winds will shift more W-NW behind the front/band of heavier snow, which should allow for some orographic snow showers to continue at times in the Wasatch through Wednesday evening. The colder push of air should also help lower snow densities and maximize additional snow accumulations. Precipitation largely shuts down Wednesday night, with a brief dry and quiet period going through Thursday afternoon. 

ECMWF 12Z 2/17/2026 1-hr Snowfall (in) (10:1 ratio). Heavy band of snow along front morning of 2/18/2026

By Friday (2/20/2026), the longwave trough digs south over the Great Basin region and in a last breath brings another shot of cold air and a storm that will track across southern/central Utah. The northern Utah mountains will be grazed by this system and will likely only squeeze out some very light additional snow accumulations. Coldest temperatures of the the week/weekend expected Friday and Saturday morning. Conditions dry out and temperatures moderate some going through the weekend as a transient ridge builds over the state. 

The upper Cottonwoods should expect snow totals Wednesday-Friday somewhere in the 18-36" range given another 1-2" of liquid and snow ratios 12:1 to 20:1. *Accumulations will be variable.

Still Kinda Spring-like

Yesterday evening, clouds and the last waves rain/snow showers from the workweek storm made for quite the sunset up in the Wasatch. Being above the stratocumulus cloud deck with the alpin glow made for a surreal moment. 

This morning (2/13/2026) northern Utah valleys are socked in with low stratus and mist, and temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s. A few light snow showers/flurries linger in the mountains, but no significant additional snow accumulations are expected. We are seeing the last remnants of the storm that impacted the state Wednesday through Thursday. The northern tier of the state will largely dry out through the day with gradually clearing skies, while lingering moisture will bring the potential for valley rain and high mountain snow showers across central and southern areas of the state. By Saturday (2/14/2026), ridging will build back over the state and dry and relatively mild conditions will return. 

GOES-18 West True Color imagery 2/13/2026. Low clouds over northern Utah, with a system slowing exiting east across SE Utah.

The mid-week storm wasn't a blockbuster snow event, but it was better than what Utah was experiencing weather-wise for the last 3-4 weeks - which was nothing. In total, the upper elevations in the Wasatch picked up 8-12" of snow and about 0.8-1.5" of liquid. This roughly translates to a 8:1 to 10:1 snow to water ratio, indicating a bit of a heavier/wetter snow than what's typical for Utah but on par for the storm types we've had this season. Like many of the storms so far this winter, the storm this past week was a 'warm' Pacific storm. Snow levels never really dropped lower than 7000-7500', which is pretty high and more characteristic of a spring storm than winter. Even the marginally cooler air in the mid-levels (-4 to -5 C at 700 mb) never really translated down to the surface. It just stayed warm...

Observed snow and precip totals (in) through 2/12/2026

Expect a brief interlude between storm cycles Friday through mid afternoon Monday (2/16/2026) as a transient ridge builds over the state, bringing dry and unseasonably warm conditions across the state. Next week still holds a strong potential for a more prolonged and colder active weather pattern. Starting late Monday, a broad trough and associated atmospheric river (AR) will set up off the central U.S. Pacific coast. The AR will aim across the Sierras into Utah, with strong moist southwesterly flow inundating the state come late Monday into Tuesday. This AR looks to be stronger than the one experienced this past week, with stronger jet dynamics enhancing lift and increased moisture transport possible.  

Utah weather event timeline 2/13-2/19/2026

ECMWF 12Z 2/13/2026 700 mb relative humidity, showing the transport of mid-level moisture into Utah 2/16-2/18/2026  

The broad Pacific trough is expected to slowly translate across the western U.S. early through mid/late next work week. Multiple waves of energy and moisture (shortwaves) embedded in the large scale trough will impact Utah Monday through at least Thursday (2/16-2/19/2026). There is the chance that after the first few initial waves Monday-Tuesday, the trough opens the door to moist northwesterly flow across northern Utah. Northwesterly flow will bring a colder modified continental polar/maritime polar Pacific airmass into the region and the potential for some enhanced orographics and lighter snow ratios in the Wasatch. Confidence in these details is still on the lower side, so there is the chance everything I just mentioned could change. However, there is a growing consensus between models that the pattern will be active and colder through next week. BUT, still TBD on the amounts. Just for the sake of wishcasting, let's goggle at the UoU experimental GFS 7-day total snow plume for Alta, UT. I wouldn't complain if > 40"+ of snow and 4"+ of water actually fell next week. 

UoU GFS Experiental 06Z 2/13/2026 7-day Total Snow (in) plume for Alta, UT 2/13-2/20/2026

I will add that other deterministic and ensemble models differ quite a bit from the plume above, but it's always fun to look at high totals and try and manifest...

Change

Temperatures along the Wasatch Front valleys topped out in the upper 50s and mid 60s this past weekend. Not very winterlike but a nice taste of spring. The SLC airport tied a daily high temperature record of 64 F on Sunday (2/8/2026). I think what set conditions apart on Sunday from other past high temperature records in February was the relatively calmer winds and mostly sunny skies. Typically, Utah sees warmer temps in the winter and spring during prefrontal periods, where strong southerly winds transport milder air from the south into Utah (warm air advection). These conditions are also frequently accompanied by clouds. 

Salt Lake City, Ut top maximum/minimum observed daily temperatures for Feb.8th

Workweek Storm

Timeline of weather events for northern Utah 2/10-2/13/2026

After a very mild and sunny weekend, the pattern has finally started to shift. Yesterday, a shortwave trough grazed Utah, bringing some light rain/snow showers across the northern half of the state. Some mountain locations picked up 0.5-1" of snow, with a trace of rainfall recorded at KSLC. A broad region of troughing across the U.S. Pacific coast has now established itself as a few disturbances spin off the coast of California. A low pressure system and associated moderate atmospheric river - noted in the visible satellite imagery below - will transport moisture and some energy into Utah late Tuesday through Thursday (2/10-2/12/2026). This will be a warmer Pacific storm, with snow levels seesawing through the period across Utah.

GOES-18 West True Color imagery 2/10/2026

Moisture begins to stream into the state from the southwest late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (2/11/2026) as a warm front and strong jet max also lift to the north over the state. Divergence associated with the jet max, coupled with the moisture rich southwesterly flow and orographics, will aid in the formation of valley rain (and maybe a few rumbles of thunder) and mountain snow showers going through Wednesday. The orientation of the flow and moisture influx will highlight southwesterly favored mountain locations across the state, with the greatest coverage and heaviest precipitation expected Wednesday morning through the afternoon. Snow levels will start out near 6500-7000' across the state Wednesday morning, then rise to 7500-8000' by the afternoon, and finally drop down to 5500-6000' by Thursday morning. 

ECMWF 12Z 2/10/2026 four-panel forecast 2/10-2/13/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness; 300 mb gph and winds; ; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds. Trough track (blue), moisture transport (green), and jex max divergence (white) overlaid.

Expect periods of heavy snowfall at times across the Wasatch, particularly above 7000' in the Cottonwoods, Wednesday through Thursday morning. Conditions settle down a bit by Thursday afternoon as the system weakens, but showers focused over the mountains will continue into Friday. The storm tracks to the south and east of the state by Friday. Winds never truly go northerly or northwesterly with this storm, so this won't necessarily be a Wasatch special. However, the Wasatch can and does do well in southwesterly flow. Model ensembles have been fairly consistent noting 1-1.5" of liquid with this storm across the northern Utah mountains. Using a 10:1 snow ratio, this would amount to 10-15" of snow, but it's likely that favored locations - such as the upper Cottonwood - could receive a bit more than this. 

Left: ECMWF ENS 12Z 2/10/2026 Total precipitation plume for Alta, UT; Right: ECMWF 12Z 2/10/2026 Total snowfall (10:1) for northern UT 2/10-2/13/2026

The Long Term

After the storm mid through late workweek, conditions quiet and dry out for the Valentines weekend. The break doesn't last long as troughing returns across the West, bringing an active and wet pattern to Utah early week through late next week. This storm cycle looks to be colder, and has the potential to impact Utah with a few different waves of energy and moisture. Ensembles and deterministic models are forecasting another 1-2" of liquid (10-20"+ snow in the mountains) with next weeks active storm cycle. The valleys may also get in on the snow as well, but that is TBD. So good news for anyone who has been pining for even more active weather. Your Valentine may come a bit late, but better late than never...

ECMWF ENS 12Z 2/10/2026 Total precipitation (in) for Alta, UT

Warm West - Cold East

It's been feeling more like March than early February across Utah the past 4-5 days. Highs in the 50s along the Wasatch Front and sunny skies. Even the birds are chirping more and a few flower bulbs are starting to creep out of the ground. Today temps will once again climb into the low 50s F for most Wasatch Front valley locations, with  highs in the upper 30s and low 40s for much of the mountain areas. The satellite loop below outlines the dome of high pressure across the western U.S. and the accompanying storm track across Canada down into the upper Great Plains. 

GOES-18 West True Color with Water Vapor imagery overlay 2/4/2026. The rex block pattern is noted (high over low)

A strong upper-level ridge and blocking pattern (rex block) has set-up shop across the western U.S. 500 mb heights (~5820 m) associated with this ridge over Utah look to have broken the record maximum observed 500 mb (5785 m) at KSLC for today (2/4). Anomalies are presented below. Warm colors indicated anomalously higher heights than normal. Heights > 5800 m are more common in the late spring and summer than in February, so very abnormal for this time of year.

12Z ECMWF 2/4/2026 - 500 mb height anomaly for 2/4/2026

For background, heights of a pressure surface increase as the mean temperature of the air in the column below it increases - based on the hypsometric equation for the atmosphere. This pattern has been keeping conditions dry and abnormally warm for the West, but has been conducive for surges of artic air and winter storm tracks to dive south and east over the middle and eastern areas of the U.S. I have been calling this pattern a "Dipole pattern" but is also known as the "Warm West and Cold East pattern". 

Analyzed 500 mb heights and temperatures (C) 12Z 2/4/2026. Upper-level and temperature pattern overlays  

PRISM Daily mean temperature (F) anomaly for 2/1-2/3/2026. Warm West and Cold East

When Will Utah See Weather Again?

Utah weather event timeline 2/4-2/19/2026

There's lots of hype online about a pattern switch arriving next workweek and what that means weatherwise across the western U.S. Ensembles have continued to trend for a pattern shift come sometime 2/9-2/13/2026, but detailing out precipitation amounts and timing are still a fool's errand.  The ensemble 500 mb heights for 2/10/2026 and the 5-day 500 height anomaly for the period 2/11-2/16/25026 below identify a troughing pattern setting up across the West. 

While there is growing confidence that the stubborn ridge and blocking pattern will weaken/dissipate 2/9-2/13/2026, confidence is low in terms of how weather specifics will play out. The available analysis generally reveals that a cooler and more active period can be expected going into mid February for Utah. That's not saying awfully much, considering any conditions other than the present would be cooler or more active, but it is nice to know there may be an end to the stale weather. The ensemble ECWMF precipitation plume below notes the potential for a few waves of moisture mid month. I would not focus on exact precip numbers at this point, but note the general timing and magnitude of each wave.

12Z ECMWF ENS 2/4/2026 Total QPF plume for KSLC

We can gain another perspective on forecasting this pattern change by looking at the Pacific North American (PNA) signal. In the image below, the ECMWF ENS PNA index is given and reveals the PNA going negative around 2/9-2/10/2026 and staying negative through the third week of February. A negative PNA index indicates a troughing pattern setting up over the U.S. Pacific coast and a corresponding active/stormy pattern.  

12Z ECMWF ENS PNA Index 2/4-2/19/2026

Still a lot to be figured out for next week's forecast, but there is a buzz of hope that precip in the frozen form is in store for the Utah mountains in the near-ish future. As horrible of a winter the West has had, we will need a very wet end of February and March to get back to a manageable position snowpack-wise. A snow drought could potentially create a cascade of impacts, including creating a bad dust and fire season across the western U.S., not to mention the significant strain it would put on agricultural and residential water resources. February and March are traditionally wetter months for Utah, so let's hope that stays true this year... 

I'll leave this here...

SNOTEL Percent Median SWE as of 2/4/2026