Seasonal Whiplash

Postmortem: March 2026 Heat Wave

I have been on a hiatus from this blog the past few weeks and during that time unprecedented, unparalleled, unmatched, extraordinary, and unequaled warmth has been the norm for Utah and much of the Western U.S. The daily mean temperature anomaly shown below reveals the average temperature for March 2026 has been 10-16+ degrees F above normal across the West - and that is anomalies from the daily mean temperature (average of daily low+high). I would go as far and say the record warmth has been beyond unprecedented or any word of equal meaning. Record warmth is not the correct descriptor, it has been record heat - heat equal to what the region observes climatologically in June or even July. 

PRISM derived month to date daily mean temperature anomaly for March 2026

These conditions have been so out of the ordinary they can't even be called abnormal. I have been at a loss for words when attempting to encapsulate this not so normal-abnormal period. The only words I think that are fitting to describe the heat we have seen in the Western U.S. in March 2026 are unhinged, transcendent, and epoch-making. We have crossed a barrier and by such a degree we may now lie in a new era of weather and climate across the West. I wish I had time to talk about the laundry list of interesting topics, regarding the extended period extremely unseasonable warmth, but the list is too long and so I will only briefly touch on a few on the list. 

Top 10 warmest March days at KSLC

March 2026 had six of the top ten warmest March days on record for Salt Lake City, with five of those days being 80 F or above. The average March temperature in 2026 was 65.4 F. The normal average March temperature for Salt Lake City is 55 F, so 2026 was 10 F above normal. That's is a large departure when dealing with averages. The record heat on top of an already abnormally warm winter has created the worst/lowest snowpack on record across Utah. The black solid line in the figure below shows the current average SWE across the state of Utah, which has precipitously dropped about 5" during the great melt off the past two weeks. Currently, Utah SWE sits at about 2.5". The average SWE for the end of March should be around 14". A new unimaginable low that spells a road of cascading problems going into the climatological warm season. Not great when peak runoff occurs in late March or early April. This can spell dire circumstances for water managers and agriculture. Not to mention the drying Great Salt Lake. 

Snow Water Equivalent for Utah as of 3/31/2026

A Quick Seasonal Shift

There is a bit of short-term relief on the way. As many have likely seen on the news, a pattern shift is in store for Utah and parts of the West today going through the late workweek. In brief, a one two hit from two troughs/disturbances will bring cooler and wetter conditions across Utah. The first disturbance or wave of energy will impact the state late Tuesday through Wednesday  (3/31-4/1/2026). A cold front will translate over the state Tuesday night, with precipitation filling in behind it. There looks to be a fair amount of moisture with this system. Storm total liquid precipitation could end up in the 1-2" range for northern Utah. 

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: 700 mb heights, temperature (C), winds, and RH 3/31-4/4/2026

Valleys will see rain and snow is possible for the higher mountain elevations - rain/snowline possibly near 8500-9000' to start Tuesday night before dropping near 7000-7500' by Wednesday afternoon. Total snow accumulations for the upper elevations of the Wasatch are forecasted for the 10-12+" range. 

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: Total Precipitation (in) 3/31-4/2/2026

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: Total Snow Accumulation (in) 3/31-4/2/2026

After a brief slow down and lull in precip late Wednesday afternoon, precip picks up - mainly in the mountains- again Wednesday evening/night ahead of the next disturbance. Periods of valley rain and mountain snow showers are possible into early Thursday before the main cold front moves over the northern tier of the state Thursday morning. A heavier band of rain/snow showers is expected along the frontal boundary. A mix of rain/snow and graupel is likely down to the valleys as the front moves over. Not as much moisture is expected with this second storm, however, colder air will filter in behind this disturbance and there will be greater coverage of snow in the mountains. Liquid precip amounts look to be in the 0.5-1" range, with additional snow accumulations for areas 8000'+ somewhere around 10-12"+. All said and done, by the end of the work week the favored Wasatch mountain locations like the Cottonwoods could see 20-30"+ of snowfall.

ECMWF ENS 06Z 3/31/2026 Total Snow Accumulation (in) for Alta, Utah

A period N-NW flow is even possible Thursday into Friday, which could enhance precip in the Wasatch. There is the potential for snow/graupel to mix in down to valley levels come Thursday into Friday morning as 700 mb temps dip to -9 to -11 C. Conditions Thursday and Friday seem to be primed for spring time convective graupel/snow showers, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates as the front and trough axis passes over. Nevertheless, no significant - if any - snow accumulations are expected for the valleys. But, I wouldn't put it out of the question that light and short-lived dusting or “graupeling” is possible in the foothills. Thursday and Friday will be the coldest period since the beginning of March, so bring that coat and pants back out of the closet. 

Conditions dry out by late Friday as a ridge builds back over the state. Temperatures moderate over the Easter weekend, and by early next workweek northern Utah valleys could be back into the low 70s. The freshly fallen snow in the mountains will likely only be temporary as temps warm back up. There's the potential for some heightened runoff after this storm cycle, so watch for fast flowing streams and rivers.

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026 Max and Min temperature forecast for SLC, UT

First-ish Spring (+)

A week ago northern Utah was seeing the end of it’s latest winter storm. The storm over-performed in some locations like the upper Cottonwoods, with 30”+ of snow observed at Alta and Snowbird. Even the SL Valley saw more prolonged snowfall than originally forecasted. However, only limited valley accumulations occurred due to above freezing temperatures. Since then, mild temperatures have largely returned. 

Storm snow and precipitation total accumulation (in) 3/4-3/6/3026

Snow water equivalent (SWE) levels saw a marginal bump from last week’s storm (~1-2”), with Cottonwood SNOTEL sites > 8000’ now seeing 85-90% of average SWE for this time of year. The story is quite different < 8000’, where SWE is largely below 30-50% of normal. At a statewide level the story is even more grim, with the current Utah SWE the lowest on record. Not great. SWE levels will likely take a big hit in the next 7-10 days as dry and very warm temperatures are forecasted. 

Utah average SWE on 3/13/2026. Lowest level to date on record.

This workweek started very mild with our first official 70 degree day observed in SLC on Monday (3/9). Conditions cooled a bit as a dry cold front slid south across the northern third of the state Tuesday-Wednesday (3/10-3/11). Mostly sunny this morning with some high and thin cirrus. Valleys bottomed out near 40 F. Today and tomorrow temperatures will rebound well above average into the 60s F for the Wasatch valleys, as an upper level ridge builds across the western U.S. A trough will graze the state Saturday into Sunday, bringing a slight cool down and small potential for some precipitation to northern Utah. As far as potential snow accumulations, they will be only for elevations > 8500-9000’ and not significant.

The Main Story

The headline story is short and sweet or maybe not very sweet depending on your preferences: Potential record warmth across Utah (3/16-3/22). Highs in the 70s to low 80s F for the Wasatch Front valleys by mid to late next week. The cause? An abnormally strong blob of high pressure will center over the West. Currently, the Ensemble ECMWF model is forecasting 500 mb heights around 590 dm over Utah by 3/18. 

ECMWF ENS 12z 3/23/2026 ensemble forecasted high and low temps for Salt Lake City, Utah 3/13-3/28/2036

The figure below shows the progression of the 500 mb height 5-day anomalies over the next 10 days. The warm colors in the figure identify abnormally high heights or a deep column of warmer than normal air. Lots of warm colors centered over Utah. Prepare for “first spring” or maybe even “first spring +”. It was a strange winter with record warmth and now spring may start the same….

ECMWF ENS 12z 3/23/2026 5-day 500 mb height anomaly. Warm colors represent abnormally high heights 

Second Round

A few interesting cloud features out there this morning, hinting that there's a bit more mixing and turbulence in the atmosphere. Photo below shows some weak Kelvin Helmholtz wave clouds over the south end of the GSL. A cold front moved through over night with an attendant band of precipitation. Most precip fell as rain in the valleys before briefly changing over to snow as precip largely came to an end. Some lingering snow showers remain across areas along the Wasatch Front, mainly up towards Ogden, with some minor grassy accumulations observed there. The Wasatch mountains have picked up a few inches of snow thus far. Nothing super impressive, but more to come later.

Ill formed KH wave clouds over the southern marshes of the GSL 3/5/2026

Second Round

A brief lull or slow down in showers is expected this morning, but a few residual snow showers are likely to hang on in areas. Any accumulations will melt off quickly once precip stops as temps will remain above freezing. The next wave of trailing moisture and energy arrives this afternoon and evening. Valley and mountain snow shower activity will increase during this period, with the mountains potentially benefiting from a northwesterly flow regime. 

GOES-18 East True Color Imagery with 500 mb heights, winds, and vorticity overlaid. Blue arrow represents progression of shortwave.

Satellite imagery reveals the main trough circulation still remains to the north across southern Idaho. The center of this trough/circulation will skirt to the north of Utah across ID, WY, and MT, but a secondary shortwave embedded in the flow will pinch off and continue to progress S-SE over the Wasatch Front later today. The colder pocket of air associated with this shortwave and the accompanying northwesterly flow could produce a period of enhanced orographic snow in the Wasatch, with snow to water ratios of around 15 to 20:1 for the higher elevations as 700 mb temps bottom out around -10 to -11 C. Not super cold but colder than the last few storms for sure. 

Forecasted 700 mb heights, winds, temp (C), and RH for 1500 MST 3/5/2026. Shortwave trough axis and general flow outlined.

The moisture and cooler temps from the northwest could help with snow totals in the mountains, but there's uncertainty on how long winds remain truly northwesterly, which could decrease mountain snow accumulations. In total, another 0.2-0.6" of liquid and 4-10+" of snow is possible in the Wasatch mountains. The Wasatch valley areas could see light accumulations on the order of a dusting to 1" Thursday evening into Friday morning as snow showers continue through that period. Otherwise, showers taper off through Friday morning. Conditions dry out late Friday across the mountains as lingering light snow showers are possible through the afternoon. 

Lake Effect Possible

HRRR 15Z 3/5/2026 forecast KSLC sounding for 0400 Z 3/6/2026 (2100 MST 3/5/2026)

Models are trending for winds to shift more northerly and increase sometime Thursday evening into Friday morning. This in combination with continued low to mid-level moisture availability could produces some lake effect or lake enhanced showers to the south of the GSL overnight Thursday. The HRRR forecast KSLC sounding above reveals strengthening northerly winds from the surface to 700 mb along with some lake induce instability (grey curved line) and available low to mid-level moisture (RH on left). If these lake effect showers develop, the Tooele and western SL valleys areas look to be the focus of impacts, with a few inches of snow accumulations possible by Friday morning. 

It Rained - Snow Incoming

Low stratocumulus clouds hang over the Wasatch Front this morning as the punchy system from yesterday exits the state to the east. The center of the circulation can be seen in western Colorado in the visible satellite imagery below. The combination of some light cold air advection and wet bulbing yesterday evening brought snow levels down around 5000-5500' for a short period. I think only some light and temporary accumulations were observed along the higher bench areas. Otherwise, temperatures actually warmed from the low 30s in the valleys last night to the upper 30s and low 40s this morning. Likely due to end of the precip.

GOES-18 East True Color imagery 3/3/2026. Image is centered over the northern half of Utah.

All said and done, the northern valleys received - at least in Utah standards - a healthy amount of rainfall. It was truly a rainy day yesterday, which is rare in these parts. Total precip totals for the northern half of the SL valley up through Cache valley came out to 0.75-1.5". The northern and central Wasatch mountains received 1-2"+ of liquid and about 6-10" of snow, generally > 7000'. 

Snow and precipitation totals (in) for the Wasatch Mtns

This morning the rain/snow has ended and conditions have largely dried out in the lower elevations. Some lingering light snow showers continue in the mountains, but these will dissipate as the morning goes on. A mix of clouds and sun are expected for the late morning into the afternoon across the northern tier of the state. Temperatures should warm into the upper 40s and low 50s for the Wasatch Front valleys. 

The Next Storm

Timeline of Utah weather events 3/3-3/11/2026

A transient ridge will build over Utah Tuesday through Wednesday, bringing dry and mild conditions back to the state. Temperatures will likely top out in the low 60s F (10+ degrees above normal) for the Wasatch Front valleys  on Wednesday, due to a bit of warm air advection out ahead of the next storm. The next storm is sitting out in the Gulf of Alaska at the moment. It will progress southeast into the PNW on Wednesday before sliding down into the Great Basin and across Utah by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

GOES-19 West True Color imagery 3/3/2026. Location of storm/center of circulation and approximate trajectory overlaid.

This looks to be a colder storm than the one the previous few days, with maritime polar airmass characteristics. A somewhat substantial cold front looks to slide across northern Utah Wednesday night, dropping 700 mb temps to -10 to -12 C by Thursday. These temperatures will translate into snow levels falling down to valley floors at times, with rain/snow and snow showers expected Thursday. However, truly cold air will be lacking near the surface, so snow accumulations in the valleys will likely only be minor grassy/raised accumulations and temporary. Temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in the low 40s for most valley locations. If showers keep up through Thursday evening, some minor additional valley accumulations are possible, but nothing significant. 

ECMWF 12Z 3/3/2026 four-panel forecast 3/3-3/7/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation type; 300 mb gph and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds 

For the Wasatch mountains, this storm could provide a decent amount of liquid and more efficient snow making due to the colder temperatures and directionality. There looks to be a period northwesterly flow associated with this storm on Thursday, which could provide a period of enhanced orographic lift for  favored mountain locations (Cottonwoods). The mountains always seem to over perform if the northwesterly flow sets up. Ensemble models are putting total liquid amounts in the range of 0.5-1+" for the mountains. Going off of the 700 mb temps during the storm (-10 to -12 C), this could potentially translate into snow to water ratios of 15:1 to 20:1 and 10-20" of snow in the mountains > 7000'. 

ECMWF ENS 00Z 3/3/2026 Total Precipitation (in) for Alta, UT

This storm could provide a healthy dosing of snow to the Wasatch, if it comes together nicely. Some uncertainty still remains about how the storm translates across the state, which will impact the period winds remain northwesterly. There are some signs that the trough could close off a bit as it digs south, which would disrupt the stream of moisture and cooler air over Utah. Conditions look to dry out by Friday, as the storm shears and splits, with one circulation moving to the southwest and the other progressing to the east. 

Long Range

Conditions warm up again for this weekend, with temperatures moderating each day. Very mild weather returns by Monday as winds increase out of the south ahead of the next potential storm sometime between 3/10-3/11/2026. Confidence is still low on this storm, but it could bring another shot of colder air and possibly some moisture. TBD...