Seasonal Whiplash

Postmortem: March 2026 Heat Wave

I have been on a hiatus from this blog the past few weeks and during that time unprecedented, unparalleled, unmatched, extraordinary, and unequaled warmth has been the norm for Utah and much of the Western U.S. The daily mean temperature anomaly shown below reveals the average temperature for March 2026 has been 10-16+ degrees F above normal across the West - and that is anomalies from the daily mean temperature (average of daily low+high). I would go as far and say the record warmth has been beyond unprecedented or any word of equal meaning. Record warmth is not the correct descriptor, it has been record heat - heat equal to what the region observes climatologically in June or even July. 

PRISM derived month to date daily mean temperature anomaly for March 2026

These conditions have been so out of the ordinary they can't even be called abnormal. I have been at a loss for words when attempting to encapsulate this not so normal-abnormal period. The only words I think that are fitting to describe the heat we have seen in the Western U.S. in March 2026 are unhinged, transcendent, and epoch-making. We have crossed a barrier and by such a degree we may now lie in a new era of weather and climate across the West. I wish I had time to talk about the laundry list of interesting topics, regarding the extended period extremely unseasonable warmth, but the list is too long and so I will only briefly touch on a few on the list. 

Top 10 warmest March days at KSLC

March 2026 had six of the top ten warmest March days on record for Salt Lake City, with five of those days being 80 F or above. The average March temperature in 2026 was 65.4 F. The normal average March temperature for Salt Lake City is 55 F, so 2026 was 10 F above normal. That's is a large departure when dealing with averages. The record heat on top of an already abnormally warm winter has created the worst/lowest snowpack on record across Utah. The black solid line in the figure below shows the current average SWE across the state of Utah, which has precipitously dropped about 5" during the great melt off the past two weeks. Currently, Utah SWE sits at about 2.5". The average SWE for the end of March should be around 14". A new unimaginable low that spells a road of cascading problems going into the climatological warm season. Not great when peak runoff occurs in late March or early April. This can spell dire circumstances for water managers and agriculture. Not to mention the drying Great Salt Lake. 

Snow Water Equivalent for Utah as of 3/31/2026

A Quick Seasonal Shift

There is a bit of short-term relief on the way. As many have likely seen on the news, a pattern shift is in store for Utah and parts of the West today going through the late workweek. In brief, a one two hit from two troughs/disturbances will bring cooler and wetter conditions across Utah. The first disturbance or wave of energy will impact the state late Tuesday through Wednesday  (3/31-4/1/2026). A cold front will translate over the state Tuesday night, with precipitation filling in behind it. There looks to be a fair amount of moisture with this system. Storm total liquid precipitation could end up in the 1-2" range for northern Utah. 

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: 700 mb heights, temperature (C), winds, and RH 3/31-4/4/2026

Valleys will see rain and snow is possible for the higher mountain elevations - rain/snowline possibly near 9000-9500' to start Tuesday night before dropping near 8000-8500' by Wednesday afternoon. Total snow accumulations for the upper elevations of the Wasatch are forecasted for the 10-12+" range. 

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: Total Precipitation (in) 3/31-4/2/2026

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026: Total Snow Accumulation (in) 3/31-4/2/2026

After a brief slow down in precip late Wednesday, the second trough dives down across Utah, bringing an additional round of precipitation and cooler air. Not as much moisture is expected with this second storm, however, colder air will filter in behind this disturbance and there will be greater coverage of snow in the mountains. Liquid precip amounts look to be in the 0.5-1" range, with additional snow accumulations for areas 8000'+ somewhere around 10-12"+. All said and done, by the end of the work week the favored Wasatch mountain locations like the Cottonwoods could see 24-30"+ of snowfall.

ECMWF ENS 06Z 3/31/2026 Total Snow Accumulation (in) for Alta, Utah

A period N-NW flow is even possible Thursday into Friday, which could enhance precip in the Wasatch. There is the potential for snow/graupel to mix in down to valley levels come Thursday into Friday morning as 700 mb temps dip to -9 to -11 C. Conditions Thursday and Friday seem to be primed for spring time convective graupel/snow showers, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates as the trough axis passes over. Nevertheless, no significant - if any - snow accumulations are expected for the valleys. But, I wouldn't put it out of the question that light and short-lived dusting is possible in the foothills. Thursday and Friday will be the coldest period since the beginning of March, so bring that coat and pants back out of the closet. 

Conditions dry out by late Friday as a ridge builds back over the state. Temperatures moderate over the Easter weekend, and by early next workweek northern Utah valleys could be back into the low 70s. The freshly fallen snow in the mountains will likely only be temporary as temps warm back up. There's the potential for some heightened runoff after this storm cycle, so watch for fast flowing streams and rivers.

ECMWF 00Z 3/31/2026 Max and Min temperature forecast for SLC, UT