First-ish Spring (+)

A week ago northern Utah was seeing the end of it’s latest winter storm. The storm over-performed in some locations like the upper Cottonwoods, with 30”+ of snow observed at Alta and Snowbird. Even the SL Valley saw more prolonged snowfall than originally forecasted. However, only limited valley accumulations occurred due to above freezing temperatures. Since then, mild temperatures have largely returned. 

Storm snow and precipitation total accumulation (in) 3/4-3/6/3026

Snow water equivalent (SWE) levels saw a marginal bump from last week’s storm (~1-2”), with Cottonwood SNOTEL sites > 8000’ now seeing 85-90% of average SWE for this time of year. The story is quite different < 8000’, where SWE is largely below 30-50% of normal. At a statewide level the story is even more grim, with the current Utah SWE the lowest on record. Not great. SWE levels will likely take a big hit in the next 7-10 days as dry and very warm temperatures are forecasted. 

Utah average SWE on 3/13/2026. Lowest level to date on record.

This workweek started very mild with our first official 70 degree day observed in SLC on Monday (3/9). Conditions cooled a bit as a dry cold front slid south across the northern third of the state Tuesday-Wednesday (3/10-3/11). Mostly sunny this morning with some high and thin cirrus. Valleys bottomed out near 40 F. Today and tomorrow temperatures will rebound well above average into the 60s F for the Wasatch valleys, as an upper level ridge builds across the western U.S. A trough will graze the state Saturday into Sunday, bringing a slight cool down and small potential for some precipitation to northern Utah. As far as potential snow accumulations, they will be only for elevations > 8500-9000’ and not significant.

The Main Story

The headline story is short and sweet or maybe not very sweet depending on your preferences: Potential record warmth across Utah (3/16-3/22). Highs in the 70s to low 80s F for the Wasatch Front valleys by mid to late next week. The cause? An abnormally strong blob of high pressure will center over the West. Currently, the Ensemble ECMWF model is forecasting 500 mb heights around 590 dm over Utah by 3/18. 

ECMWF ENS 12z 3/23/2026 ensemble forecasted high and low temps for Salt Lake City, Utah 3/13-3/28/2036

The figure below shows the progression of the 500 mb height 5-day anomalies over the next 10 days. The warm colors in the figure identify abnormally high heights or a deep column of warmer than normal air. Lots of warm colors centered over Utah. Prepare for “first spring” or maybe even “first spring +”. It was a strange winter with record warmth and now spring may start the same….

ECMWF ENS 12z 3/23/2026 5-day 500 mb height anomaly. Warm colors represent abnormally high heights