Fairly mild in the Salt Lake Valley this morning, with winds shifting to the north and temps in the low 50s. Orographically induced stratus clouds edge across the northern Utah valleys but seem to hang over the Wasatch mountains. Clouds are moving SW to NE, indicating upper level winds are out of the SW. Typically, when clouds features like this exist, you can deduce winds at mid to upper levels of the atmosphere are moving quickly and the weather may be shifting soon. This is indeed the case as shortwave trough and cold front will be moving over the Wasatch Front come late morning into the afternoon.
| GOES-18 West True Color Imagery 4/16/2026. Focused over northern Utah, showing orographic stratus clouds ahead of the next storm |
Currently, the cold frontal boundary sits just north and west of the SL Valley over the GSL. As seen in the visible satellite imagery below, this front is associated with a shortwave trough that has stretched south over the Great Basin off of a larger and more pronounced system/circulation over Montana and southern Canada. The main front will progress across the northern Utah valleys by late morning, with a band of valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers filling in along and behind the front. A very sharp temperature gradient exists along the frontal boundary, giving the front strong baroclinic characteristics and producing a region of strong frontogenesis along the front - tightening of temperature and pressure gradients that strengthen a front, low pressure system, and precipitation formation.
Although the shortwave energy and upper-level jet dynamics are supportive of lift and precipitation formation, moisture with this system will be a limiting factor. The bulk of the moisture will remain with the main system/circulation well to the north, with most of the precipitation in Utah oriented along a SW to NW band as the front moves over this afternoon. The front/band will translated NW to SE across the state through Friday morning (4/17/2026), bringing valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers. There will likely be a few hours of rain/snow and snow showers over the valleys this afternoon before things taper off by early evening. Periods of moderate to heavy snow showers are possible, particularly along and just behind the main frontal boundary.
| ECMWF 00Z 4/16/2026 four-panel forecast 34/16-3/17/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation type; 300 mb gph and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds |
As the trough axis passes over northern Utah tonight into Friday morning, winds will shift NW and strong cold air advection will cool 700 mb temps as low as -13 to -14 C. The combination of NW winds and very cold air overlaying the relatively warm GSL will bring the potential for some lake enhanced/lake effect snow showers across locations from Tooele over to the west side of the SL Valley.
| ECMWF 00Z 4/16/2026 12-hr Snow Accumulation (in) for northern Utah Friday morning. Band of accumulations are associated with potential lake effect snow. |
| ECMWF ENS 06Z 4/16/2026 Total Snow Accumulation (in) for Alta, UT 4/16-4/22/2026 |
The mountains could see 3-6" of snow through Friday morning, so nothing crazy. The Cottonwoods will likely win out (see above figure), but at this point I'm not sure how much it matters. There probably is still some pockets of decent skiing very high up if you go searching hard for it, but I think most people are already well into spring mode...
No comments:
Post a Comment