Still Kinda Spring-like

Yesterday evening, clouds and the last waves rain/snow showers from the workweek storm made for quite the sunset up in the Wasatch. Being above the stratocumulus cloud deck with the alpin glow made for a surreal moment. 

This morning (2/13/2026) northern Utah valleys are socked in with low stratus and mist this morning, and temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s. A few light snow showers/flurries linger in the mountains, but no significant additional snow accumulations are expected. We are seeing the last remnants of the storm that impacted the state Wednesday through Thursday. The northern tier of the state will largely dry out through the day with gradually clearing skies, while lingering moisture will bring the potential for valley rain and high mountain snow showers across central and southern areas of the state through the day. By Saturday (2/14/2026), ridging will build back over the state and dry and relatively mild conditions will return. 

GOES-18 West True Color imagery 2/13/2026. Low clouds over northern Utah, with a system slowing exiting east across SE Utah.

The mid-week storm wasn't a blockbuster snow event, but it was better than what Utah was experiencing weather-wise for the last 3-4 weeks - which was nothing. In total, the upper elevations in the Wasatch picked up 8-12" of snow and about 0.8-1.5" of liquid. This roughly translates to a 8:1 to 10:1 snow to water ratio, indicating a bit of a heavier/wetter snow than what's typical for Utah but on par for the storm types we've had this season. Like many of the storms so far this winter, the storm this past week was a 'warm' Pacific storm. Snow levels never really dropped lower than 7000-7500', which is pretty high and more characteristic of a spring storm than winter. Even the marginally cooler air in the mid-levels (-4 to -5 C at 700 mb) never really translated down to the surface. It just stayed warm...

Observed snow and precip totals (in) through 2/12/2026

Expect a brief interlude between storm cycles Friday through mid afternoon Monday (2/16/2026) as a transient ridge builds over the state, bringing dry and unseasonably warm conditions across the state. Next week still holds a strong potential for a more prolonged and colder active weather pattern. Starting late Monday, a broad trough and associated atmospheric river (AR) will set up off the central U.S. Pacific coast. The AR will aim across the Sierras into Utah, with strong moist southwesterly flow inundating the state come late Monday into Tuesday This AR looks to be stronger than the one experienced this past week, with stronger jet dynamics enhancing lift and increased moisture transport possible.  

Utah weather event timeline 2/13-2/19/2026

ECMWF 12Z 2/13/2026 700 mb relative humidity, showing the transport of mid-level moisture into Utah 2/16-2/18/2026  

The broad Pacific trough is expected to slowly translate across the western U.S. early through mid/late next work week. Multiple waves of energy and moisture (shortwaves) embedded in the large scale trough will impact Utah Monday through at least Thursday (2/16-2/19/2026). There is the chance that after the first few initial waves Monday-Tuesday, the trough opens the door to moist northwesterly across northern Utah. Northwesterly flow will bring a colder modified continental polar/maritime polar Pacific airmass into the region and the potential for some enhanced orographics and lighter snow ratios in the Wasatch. Confidence in these details is still on the lower side, so there is the chance everything I just mentioned could change. However, there is a growing consensus between models that the pattern will be active and colder through next week. BUT, still TBD the amounts. Just for the sake of wishcasting, let's goggle at the UoU experimental GFS 7-day total snow plume for Alta, UT. I wouldn't complain if > 40"+ of snow and 4"+ of water actually fell next week. 

UoU GFS Experiental 06Z 2/13/2026 7-day Total Snow (in) plume for Alta, UT 2/13-2/20/2026

I will add that other deterministic and ensemble models differ quite a bit from the plume above, but it's always fun to look at high totals and try and manifest...