Put up the Snorkel

Very soupy along the Wasatch Front this morning, so put up your snorkels to get a breath of fresh air. The air quality is not great. Particulate concentrations (PM2.5) have been oscillating around 25-35 ug/m3, which corresponds to a yellow to orange AQI level if you're more familiar with that metric. 

Left: view of the Utah Capital building through the inversion haze; Right: PM2.5 concentrations across the Wasatch Front 1/14/2026

Why is this happening?

Utah is still inverted. That's the short answer. The longer explanation has to do with a dome of high pressure and blocking pattern set-up across the western U.S. Currently, ridging in the west and troughing east of the continental divide is creating a dipole pattern across the country, with quiet and warm conditions across the west and active and cold conditions across the east. 

Analyzed 12Z 1/14/2026 500 mb heights and temperature (C), with overlays - ridging/warmer temps (red shading); troughing/colder temps (blue shading)

The dome of high pressure over the west is associated with a large blob of mid-level warm temperatures, which is helping to keep the Utah valleys inverted. The warmer mid-level temperatures overlay the colder air pooled in the valleys and inhibit much or any vertical mixing. Overtime, pollutants build up in the valleys because air is 'trapped' or is unable to vent out. Until cooler air aloft or strong surface to mid-level winds arrive, the inversion conditions and poor air quality continues. High pressure is also directing storm activity well north into Canada, keeping conditions stagnate for locations across the west. 

Left: KSLC 12Z 1/14/2026 sounding;  Right: ECMWF 06Z 1/14/2026 700 mb temperature (C)

When will this end?

Weather event timeline 1/14-1/24/2026 for northern Utah

Unfortunately, there is no clear end time to the inversion within the next 7-days. There is a potential for some improvement and weakening of the inversion across Utah come this Friday-Saturday (1/16-1/17/2026). Currently, models forecast a trough grazing northern Utah late week into the early weekend, bringing cooler mid-level temps and possibly some stronger mid-level winds. Uncertainty still remains to what degree this trough will graze the state and if any of the changes it brings equates to a weakening of the inversion and improvement in air quality. 

ECMWF 12Z 1/14/2026 700 mb temperature (C)

Other than the possibility of some short-term relief going into this weekend, no other active weather is on the horizon until mid to late next workweek (1/22-1/24/2026). This is still very far off, so plenty of uncertainty remains on what sort of activity will occur. But models continue to trend that a break in the pattern will occur sometime around that time frame. The ECMWF Ensemble 5-day 500 mb height anomalies reveal the ridge/blocking pattern dissolving late next week and allowing some potential troughing across the west. For all the Utahn's wanting clear air and more snow, we are at least 7-10 days out from the next opportunity...

ECMWF ENS 00Z 1/14/2026 5-day 500 mb height anomalies - Left: 1/14-1/19/2026; Right: 1/21-1/26/2026

ECMWF ENS 00Z 1/14/2026 Total Precipitation Accumulation (in) at KSLC

Hopefully, as the atmosphere shifts later this month, the colder air and snow will make it's way across Utah. The Utah snowpack is still in poor shape, excluding a few outliers, but that is a conversation for another time. The later half of this winter has a lot of makeup work to complete...

The Other Side

The story is very different east of the continental divide, where multiple Artic blasts and winter storms are possible going through the next week. If we look at forecasted surface pressure (MSLP) over the next week, we can get a good idea of where and to what strength artic air is being generated in western Canada and Alaska. 

ECMWF 12Z 1/14/2026 Forecasted MSLP (mb)

Areas of higher pressure (warm to dark colors) signify pools of very cold artic air. The higher the pressure the colder the Artic air mass (cold air is more dense, hence higher pressure). Through the course of the animation above, we can see a few blobs or areas of high pressure > 1040 mb (dark colors), which is typically a good threshold for distinguishing potential areas of an artic cold air outbreak. These areas of high pressure can be seen diving south into the central and eastern U.S., and correspond to very cold temperatures, indicated by the 850 mb temp animation below.

ECMWF 12Z 1/14/2026 Forecasted 700 mb temperature (C)