Almost Normal

Last of the weekend storm passing over northern Utah this morning. Cold valley rain in SLC, with some graupel and rain/snow mix along the benches under heavier showers. Heaviest precipitation will be focused through the next hour or so as moisture, forcing, and instability are maximized with the frontal passage. The KSLC sounding this morning reveals relatively steep low to upper-level lapse rates (>6.5 C/km) and a hint of CAPE (~160 J/kg). Storm activity will start to decrease after mid to late morning as the trough axis passes over and drier air filters into the region. In the meantime, the cooling of the mid to upper-levels has allowed some modest instability and the formation of some convective showers. 

These convective showers are dropping heavier rates and heavy snowfall has been observed in the mountains, with rate s1"+ in the the last 1-2 hours and near whiteout conditions in certain areas. The heavier rates have dropped snow levels as low as 5000-5500' in some locations. Road conditions in the Cottonwoods are snow covered down to the lower canyon in LCC and down to mid canyon in BCC. Conditions also deteriorate the further up canyon you travel. 

LCC mouth 5419' @ 0930 1/5/2026

LCC  6440' @ 0930 1/5/2026

LCC Alta 8700' @ 0930 1/5/2026

Storm snow totals over the last 24-hrs have been about 8-14" at the ski resorts across the Wasatch. Additional accumulations have fallen since these observations and a few more inches are possible through the afternoon, so all said and done storm totals could be near 20" for the favored resorts. 

Snowfall will become more intermittent and showery after mid morning, but residual moisture and some daytime heating will likely bring the potential for scattered snow showers going into this afternoon in the mountains. The northern valleys will likely dry out with a mix of clouds and sun by this afternoon, but can't rule out a spotty shower. 

And in related news, most upper elevation (>8000-8500') mountain SNOTELS in the central and northern Wasatch are now reporting near average SWE. We could even be above average SWE and above 2025 levels by the end of this workweek. That's not to say we have average snow depth at these locations. Storms have been warm and snow densities have been high, so while we have the liquid in the snowpack we don't necessarily have the depth. But we're not too far off and could get there. I wasn't so sure we could ever claw our way back to normal this season. The snowpack across mid to lower elevations (5500-8000') is still in poor shape or nearly nonexistent. Still work to be done there.   

Snowbird SNOTEL SWE (in)

Brighton SNOTEL SWE (in)

A brief intermission between storm activity is expected late Monday through early Wednesday (1/5-1/7/2026). Active conditions return late Wednesday through Friday as a colder system dives down from the NW, bringing snow across the state. This storm will be colder than this previous disturbance, and will offer the opportunity for valley snow late Wednesday into Thursday. 

Left: ECMWF 12Z 500 mb heights and vorticity ; Right: GFS 12Z 1/5/2026 500 mb heights and vorticity 

There is a bit of uncertainty in the exact storm track and trough location, with the GFS and ECMWF models differing slightly. While there are only slight discrepancies between model forecasts as of now, small variations in the storm positioning can influence storm impacts. Specifically, snow totals in the valleys and Wasatch will be dependent on how the trough approaches and passes over the state. The deeper the trough digs, the more NW the trough progresses, and the more consolidated the trough remains (rather than shearing apart) over the state the greater the potential for heavier impacts. So some uncertainty remains...

After this mid to late week storm, things quite down for what looks to be a more extended period. Ridging and the potential for inversion conditions are on the table going into this weekend and at least early next workweek. Hopefully, things pick back up again come the second half of January...