Unprecendented?

The air has finally cleared out along the Wasatch Front thanks to a weak disturbance that moved over the state this weekend. Unfortunately, moisture was lacking and no significant precipitation fell. A few flurries at times in the mountains were observed and even in the valley but that's all she wrote. However, temperatures were knocked down to more seasonal normals (upper 30s) for a few days. Today, morning temps bottomed out in the teens across the northern Utah valleys, but with cloudless skies and a bit of warm air advection highs will climb into the mid 40s for most areas this afternoon.

For those hoping this week offers a change up in the pattern, I am sorry to say Utah will largely be seeing similar conditions as the previous 10-14 days. Other than a weak system that looks to move across the state mid-week, there is nothing else on the radar for another 7-10 days. As I always say, things can change, but ensembles and the model trend have been fairly consistent in developing another ridge across the western U.S. going through the end of January and beginning of February... sad.

The Snowpack State of Affairs

It's been an interesting winter so far, or rather a non-winter. By some numbers, it's the lowest snow year in history to date along the Wasatch Front. By other numbers, the snow is low but not the lowest it's ever been. The story is split by elevation. The snowpack for areas > 9000' isn't spectacular but is also not in dire straits. Currently, the SWE at or above this level is 75-85% of normal, and actually, just 14 days ago, the snowpack in this elevation band had climbed back to average SWE for the date (100% of normal). 

SWE percent of 1991-2020 median

The story is much different for the mid 6000-8500' elevations, where the snowpack is largely nonexistent or historically low (0-50% of normal). There are many areas, particularly south facing, that are completely snowless up to 8500'. Below 6000', the Wasatch Front valleys have experienced their least snowy winter to date, with the SLC airport only observing 0.1" of snow accumulation as of the time of this post. For perspective, the winter with the second and third, lowest snow accumulations to date was last season 2024-2025 with 6.3" and the 1933-1934 season with 11.3", respectively. Ignoring last winter, that's a 11.2" difference between this winter and the 1933-1934 winter. Not only is this winter the lowest on record for SLC, the low snow is unprecedented. 

Year-to-Date Summary	Observed 2025-2026	2024-2025	1933-1934	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Total Snowfall (since July 1)	0.1	6.3	11.3	30.5	81.3 in 1993	0.1 in 2026

Why is there such a sharp gradient in the snowpack? 

What's to blame for the low tide snowpack..? The main culprit is the significantly above normal temperatures this winter. The average temperature for December 2025 was 43.7 F in SLC, which is over 10 degrees above normal (32.2 F) for the month. January 2026 has cooled off some, but still has been above average (table below). 

	Dec 2025	Dec Normal	Jan 2026	Jan Normal
Avg Max Temperature	51.4	39	43	38.3
Avg Min Temperature	36	25.3	27.9	24
Avg Temperature	43.7	32.2	35.5	31.2

In short, the lack of near freezing temperatures have caused precipitation to fall as liquid rather than frozen. This winter has been dry at times, but not below normal. If you were to look back from the start of the water year (Oct. 1), SLC has actually seen above average precipitation - 6.99" since Oct. 1 compared to the normal 5.14". And if you were to look at total precipitation accumulation at SNOTEL sites focused across northern Utah, most sites are near normal liquid to date. However, the recent dry spell and continuation of dry conditions will definitely edge our winter to the drier side.

Total precipitation percent of 1991-2020 median

Going Forward

Not much is going on weather-wise across Utah and the interior western U.S. in the short or long term. A transient ridge will build over the state early week before a weak system moves over mid workweek. Not much, if any, precipitation is anticipated with this storm. Temps will be knocked down some and the mountains may be able squeeze a skiff out, but that may be it. Unfortunately, the forecast looks bleak, with dry and relatively mild conditions persisting across Utah into early February. 

The upper-level dipole pattern will continue, with ridging in the west and troughing in the east (figure below). While areas east of the continental divide get blasted by artic air bouts of winter weather, the western U.S. will potentially be under the ridge that will never die. Usually, I save the term "death ridge" for a summertime ridges with 500 mb heights > 5900 m, but deterministic models have been hinting at a ridge with 500 mb heights ~ 5800 m setting up over the western U.S. by next week. Heights of that magnitude - in the middle of winter - are incredibly anomalous and would be associated with an abnormally warm airmass. If this model solution verifies, or is even close, I think we would be able to label it a "death ridge" for winter. 

12Z ECMWF ENS 5-day 500 mb height anomaly (m) 1/26-1/31/2026

Ensembles are less aggressive with the strength of the ridge going into February, but still note large positive height anomalies associated with the ridge over the west (above figure). Let's just hope we have a wet end of February and March. I don't think we will be able to make up all the ground lost, but at least we can minimize the deleterious impacts of a significant snow drought...