Nothing like a cold rain, low clouds, and dreary conditions to remind you of an East Coast winter. The northern Utah valleys are socked in with light rain and some mixed precipitation this morning. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s for most locations. Temperatures up in the Wasatch aren't that much cooler, ranging from right near freezing to the upper 20s. The rain/snow line is currently around 6500-7000'. Mountain and canyon road conditions are largely good, with mainly wet roads and some sloppy slush up near the ski resort elevations.
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Salt Lake Valley to Park City surface conditions @ 0915 MDT 1/2/2026
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| UDOT Cardiff Fork ~7380' camera @ 0915 MDT 1/2/2026 |
Currently, we are seeing the last of a disturbance as it move eastward out of the state. Winds are out of the W-NW, which has aided in some cold air advection overnight into this morning and brought snow levels and snow density down. The ski resorts received about 12" of fresh snow across the board through the storm event for the Cottonwoods with a bit less for the remainder of the Wasatch resorts.
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| GOES-19 East Longwave Infrared imagery 1/2/2026 with surface observations and 500 mb heights and winds overlaid |
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| Wasatch ski resort snow accumulations (in) 1/2/2026 |
Showers will largely taper off by mid to late morning in the valleys, with some lingering light snow showers potentially continuing in the mountains above 6500-7000' through the early afternoon. Probably not much more in the way of new snow accumulations. Drier and warmer air intrudes into the area later today as winds shift more W-SW. This will likely bring snow levels up some for any remaining snow showers. Nonetheless, any remanent moisture should move out of the region by this afternoon.
Conditions dry out and warm some late Friday through early Saturday as a transient ridge and flow shifts SW over the state. However, this dry interlude does not last long as the next storm on tap moves in off the Pacific and over the western U.S. by late Saturday. This setup could potentially keep conditions active for Utah second half of this weekend through mid to late next workweek.
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| ECMWF 00Z 1/2/2026 four-panel forecast 1/2-1/6/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness; 300 mb gph and winds; ; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds |
A broad upper-level trough with embedded waves of energy and moisture will center itself across the western U.S. Saturday through Monday, bringing an upper-level jet and moisture tap directed over Utah. Beginning late Saturday into early Sunday morning, a weak wave - out ahead of the main trough - will graze northern Utah. A few valley rain and mountain snow showers above 7000-7500' are possible during this period, but the main focus for precipitation and accumulating mountain snow looks to be Sunday into Monday as cooler air, additional moisture, and the best jet dynamics move into the state.
The Sunday into Monday storm event will be tied to a landfalling atmospheric river (AR), but will differ from the past AR events we have had so far this season. Could the pattern finally be shifting? Mid-level temperatures will be a bit cooler than previous AR's, with snow levels near 7000' to start late Sunday before dropping down around 6000-6500' by Monday. The cooler temperatures will help more efficient snow production in the mountains rather than bringing mountain rain/snow that has been characteristic of many storms over the past 4-6 weeks.
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| ECMWF 12Z 1/2/2026 72 hr Total Precipitation Accumulation (in) |
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| ECMWF 12Z 1/2/2026 72 hr Total Snow Accumulation (10:1 ratio) (in) |
Locations favored in SW flow, like Brighton or Deer Valley, could do well with this storm. Confidence in exact accumulations on the lower end, but as of now total liquid for the Sunday through Monday storms ranges from 1-2+" in the upper Cottonwoods to PC ridgeline. Areas further north towards Snowbasin and Powder Mountain could also see amounts in a similar range. The liquid totals could translate into total snow accumulations in the range of 12-24+", however, snow totals will be heavily dependent on location and the exact timing of colder temps as this will impact snow density.
The late weekend into early next week storm could be one of the bigger if not the biggest mountain snow producer of the season thus far. But I guess that's not really saying a lot. There is the prospect of a colder and active pattern continuing into the mid to late upcoming work week. A more typical wintertime Utah storm has been trending fairly consistently across models for the this Wednesday into Thursday timeframe.
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| ECMWF 12Z (left) and GFS 12Z (right) 1/2/2026 500 mb anomalies on 1/8/2026 |
Both GFS and ECMWF runs have noted negative 500 mb height anomalies across the Great Basin/Utah region during this period (1/7-1/8/2026), indicating troughing and potential storm activity. There are also signs that this mid-week storm looks to come out of the NW with more a more characteristic colder polar airmass and moisture source. The Wasatch shares the love the most with storms out of the NW, so hopefully this forecast stays true...
For fun, let's goggle at the the 240 hr (10 day) UoU GFS Ensemble total snow accumulation for Alta, UT 1/1-1/11/2026. The ensemble 50th percentile puts a total of 50" at Alta from now through the end of next week (1/9/2026), which is nice to hope for. Even nicer, albeit less likely, is the 90th to 100th percentile totals of 65-96", respectively. Will these numbers be reality? Most likely not, but it is fun every once in awhile to wish-cast and hope for the higher end...
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