Shifted

As is typical, when you think there is confidence in a forecast solution things change. And indeed things have shifted... Timing of some impacts have been pushed back by 4-6 hours, while others have decreased in intensity and duration. 

Snow totals as of 0819 MST 1/8/2026

A less than impressive performance so far from this talked about "storm". Anywhere from wet grass and roads to 0.5-1" of snow accumulation so far across the SL valley. Temperatures never cooled as fast as forecasted and energy and moisture associated with the trough has become a bit more unconsolidated than anticipated. All these factors have led to underwhelming Wasatch Front valley snow totals this morning. The mountains have done alright, with 6-10" so far at the Cottonwood resorts.

GOES-19 East Mid-Level Water Vapor imagery with 500 mb heights, winds, and vorticity overlaid

The main cold front looks to pass over norther Utah by mid-morning Thursday - originally forecasted in the predawn hours -, filtering in some cooler air. Behind this cold front, temperatures will hover near freezing in the northern valleys through the remainder of the day. Another wave of snow showers will fill in behind the front and as the trough axis approaches the area, with a low threat for lake effect snow setting up come late afternoon and early evening when the coldest temps arrive. Mid-level flow is currently NW with additional moisture, so the potential for terrain induced moderate to heavy snow is possible in the Wasatch at times through the day. 

Additional snow accumulations in the SL Valley will likely be light, due to the daytime nature of shower activity, unless heavier rates occur. Models have been trending all over the place with the remainder of the storm - or I guess technically not trending - and as they say "the trend is your friend", so plenty of uncertainty still remains. The mountains are still on track to get anywhere from 10-20", but for the valley accumulations I will just let the remainder of the storm ride out instead of trying to crystal ball any further. 

Something Familiar

The clouds over the mountains this morning are putting on an eye catching show. They are also alluding to shifting conditions. A low lying blanket of clouds extending from the base of Little Cottonwood up canyon and the sprinkling of lenticular clouds across the Wasatch are signs of a change in winds and moisture availability in the atmosphere. 

The clouds this morning can be attributed to southwesterly flow aloft and increasing moisture ahead of a longwave trough and cold front diving south out of the PNW. The trough will begin to push into Utah through Wednesday, bringing winter weather impacts across the state going into Thursday and early Friday. This will be a more traditional or familiar type of winter storm for Utah, with more characteristic northwesterly flow and colder air than previous systems this winter.

Clouds will increase through the morning across the northern half of the state before scattered valley rain/snow and mountain snow showers begin to fill in across the Wasatch Front through the afternoon. Precipitation will initially be focused over the higher terrain through Wednesday evening as upper-level forcing and energy will be weaker. 700 mb temperatures will range from about -4 early to -6 C late Wednesday, bringing snow levels down near 5500-6000'. 

By late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the main trough energy and cold frontal boundary will progress over the region, aiding in stronger lift/ascent and a period of greater precipitation coverage and rates. During this timeframe, winds will also shift northwesterly, allowing a switch over to a cold air advection regime and greater orographic induced snow. The cooler temperatures will transition rain/snow showers in the valleys over to all snow by early Thursday morning. 

ECMWF 00Z 1/7/2026 four-panel forecast 1/7-1/9/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness; 300 mb gph and winds; ; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds

The heaviest snowfall rates in the valley and mountains are expected to occur sometime between the predawn hours to mid morning Thursday. Northwesterly flow will keep upslope showers going into the Cottonwoods through most of Thursday and potentially even into Friday morning. However, the duration of terrain induced snowfall will rely on how long winds remain northwesterly and therefore total mountain snow accumulations will also depend on this. Showers decrease and become more intermittent to scattered in the valley into the afternoon hours, but there is the potential for a lake effect band to setup during this time.

ECMWF ENS 00Z 1/7/2026 10:1 Snowfall Total (in) at KSLC

Model ensemble average (green line above) puts 3-5" of snow in the SLV by Thursday afternoon, but accumulations across the valley will likely be area specific, with localized amounts potentially being higher or lower. Deterministic models differ in placement of higher end totals for snow, with the ECMWF favoring larger totals for the northern and western half of the SLV and the GFS favoring larger totals for the east side and east benches. 

Left: ECMWF 00Z 24hr precip total (in); Right: GFS 12Z 24hr precip total (in) 

Valley snowfall amounts will be heavily dependent on both the timing of the change over from rain/snow to snow and how long winds remain northwesterly versus northerly. Additionally, the formation of lake enhanced snow showers or a lake effect snow band is possible, but there is uncertainty in timing and location of such a feature. Currently, models setup a lake effect band oriented across the western half of the SLV over the Oquirrhs to Tooele Valley mid morning Thursday through the afternoon. Total valley snow accumulations will obviously be heavily impacted by any lake effect snow. If a lake band does develop, impacted locations could see higher totals in the 6-10" range.

UoU GFS Ensemble 00Z 1/7/2026 Total Snow for Alta, UT 1/7-1/13/2026. (credit: UoU Atmo Sciences)

The Cottonwoods look to see anywhere between 10-20" of snow by Friday morning, with localized higher amounts if northwesterly flow sets up nicely and for an extended duration. Because this a colder storm, snow densities will be lighter and cloud microphysics could help push out snow more efficiently. There is good agreement in the extended ensembles that after this next storm things will dry out for quite a bit, so enjoy the fresh powder. A classic inversion setup is forecasted for the northern Utah valley areas going into this weekend and early next week...

We'll Take it

Clear and cold this morning, but a new healthy dosing of white is apparent on the Wasatch. Yesterdays storm produced in typical Wasatch fashion. The main push of energy and moisture moved through Monday morning, dropping over a foot of snow in most upper elevation mountain locations in northern Utah. As the main focus of the storm exited to the east, precipitation kept falling in the Cottonwoods even when conditions started to quiet down everywhere else. A nearly stationary shower band set up off the southern Oquirrhs up into the Cottonwoods early to late afternoon, which dropped heavy snowfall.

KMTX Radar Base Reflectitvy 2029-2307Z 1/6/2026

Remnant moisture, westerly to southwesterly flow, and a bit of convective instability was enough to continue producing heavy snow showers at times in the Cottonwood Canyons yesterday afternoon. Yesterday's afternoon sounding from KSLC shows a touch of CAPE, which is typically enough when combined with orographic lift to create some heavier mountain showers.

KSLC 1/6/2026 00Z Sounding

All said and done, over 24" of snow and 4+" of liquid accumulated across many Wasatch locations. This was the biggest snow and liquid producer of the season. The overall winners were Alta 29", Snowbird 26", and Brighton 28". Official storm reports below:

Storm totals Northern/Central Wasatch (1/4-1/5/2026):

Storm snow totals (in)

Storm SWE totals (in)

A colder storm is still on tap for this Wednesday through Thursday. Valley snow and another healthy dose of mountain snow is possible. Details are still tbd, but it should round out as a decent storm.

Almost Normal

Last of the weekend storm passing over northern Utah this morning. Cold valley rain in SLC, with some graupel and rain/snow mix along the benches under heavier showers. Heaviest precipitation will be focused through the next hour or so as moisture, forcing, and instability are maximized with the frontal passage. The KSLC sounding this morning reveals relatively steep low to upper-level lapse rates (>6.5 C/km) and a hint of CAPE (~160 J/kg). Storm activity will start to decrease after mid to late morning as the trough axis passes over and drier air filters into the region. In the meantime, the cooling of the mid to upper-levels has allowed some modest instability and the formation of some convective showers. 

These convective showers are dropping heavier rates and heavy snowfall has been observed in the mountains, with rate s1"+ in the the last 1-2 hours and near whiteout conditions in certain areas. The heavier rates have dropped snow levels as low as 5000-5500' in some locations. Road conditions in the Cottonwoods are snow covered down to the lower canyon in LCC and down to mid canyon in BCC. Conditions also deteriorate the further up canyon you travel. 

LCC mouth 5419' @ 0930 1/5/2026

LCC  6440' @ 0930 1/5/2026

LCC Alta 8700' @ 0930 1/5/2026

Storm snow totals over the last 24-hrs have been about 8-14" at the ski resorts across the Wasatch. Additional accumulations have fallen since these observations and a few more inches are possible through the afternoon, so all said and done storm totals could be near 20" for the favored resorts. 

Snowfall will become more intermittent and showery after mid morning, but residual moisture and some daytime heating will likely bring the potential for scattered snow showers going into this afternoon in the mountains. The northern valleys will likely dry out with a mix of clouds and sun by this afternoon, but can't rule out a spotty shower. 

And in related news, most upper elevation (>8000-8500') mountain SNOTELS in the central and northern Wasatch are now reporting near average SWE. We could even be above average SWE and above 2025 levels by the end of this workweek. That's not to say we have average snow depth at these locations. Storms have been warm and snow densities have been high, so while we have the liquid in the snowpack we don't necessarily have the depth. But we're not too far off and could get there. I wasn't so sure we could ever claw our way back to normal this season. The snowpack across mid to lower elevations (5500-8000') is still in poor shape or nearly nonexistent. Still work to be done there.   

Snowbird SNOTEL SWE (in)

Brighton SNOTEL SWE (in)

A brief intermission between storm activity is expected late Monday through early Wednesday (1/5-1/7/2026). Active conditions return late Wednesday through Friday as a colder system dives down from the NW, bringing snow across the state. This storm will be colder than this previous disturbance, and will offer the opportunity for valley snow late Wednesday into Thursday. 

Left: ECMWF 12Z 500 mb heights and vorticity ; Right: GFS 12Z 1/5/2026 500 mb heights and vorticity 

There is a bit of uncertainty in the exact storm track and trough location, with the GFS and ECMWF models differing slightly. While there are only slight discrepancies between model forecasts as of now, small variations in the storm positioning can influence storm impacts. Specifically, snow totals in the valleys and Wasatch will be dependent on how the trough approaches and passes over the state. The deeper the trough digs, the more NW the trough progresses, and the more consolidated the trough remains (rather than shearing apart) over the state the greater the potential for heavier impacts. So some uncertainty remains...

After this mid to late week storm, things quite down for what looks to be a more extended period. Ridging and the potential for inversion conditions are on the table going into this weekend and at least early next workweek. Hopefully, things pick back up again come the second half of January...

New Year, New Pattern?

Nothing like a cold rain, low clouds, and dreary conditions to remind you of an East Coast winter. The northern Utah valleys are socked in with light rain and some mixed precipitation this morning.  Temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s for most locations. Temperatures up in the Wasatch aren't that much cooler, ranging from right near freezing to the upper 20s. The rain/snow line is currently around 6500-7000'. Mountain and canyon road conditions are largely good, with mainly wet roads and some sloppy slush up near the ski resort elevations.

Salt Lake Valley to Park City surface conditions @ 0915 MDT 1/2/2026

UDOT Cardiff Fork ~7380' camera @ 0915 MDT 1/2/2026

Currently, we are seeing the last of a disturbance as it move eastward out of the state. Winds are out of the W-NW, which has aided in some cold air advection overnight into this morning and brought snow levels and snow density down. The ski resorts received about 12" of fresh snow across the board through the storm event for the Cottonwoods with a bit less for the remainder of the Wasatch resorts.

GOES-19 East Longwave Infrared imagery 1/2/2026 with surface observations and 500 mb heights and winds overlaid

Wasatch ski resort snow accumulations (in) 1/2/2026

Showers will largely taper off by mid to late morning in the valleys, with some lingering light snow showers potentially continuing in the mountains above 6500-7000' through the early afternoon. Probably not much more in the way of new snow accumulations. Drier and warmer air intrudes into the area later today as winds shift more W-SW. This will likely bring snow levels up some for any remaining snow showers. Nonetheless, any remanent moisture should move out of the region by this afternoon.

Conditions dry out and warm some late Friday through early Saturday as a transient ridge and flow shifts SW over the state. However, this dry interlude does not last long as the next storm on tap moves in off the Pacific and over the western U.S. by late Saturday. This setup could potentially keep conditions active for Utah second half of this weekend through mid to late next workweek. 

ECMWF 00Z 1/2/2026 four-panel forecast 1/2-1/6/2026: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness; 300 mb gph and winds; ; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds

A broad upper-level trough with embedded waves of energy and moisture will center itself across the western U.S. Saturday through Monday, bringing an upper-level jet and moisture tap directed over Utah. Beginning late Saturday into early Sunday morning, a weak wave - out ahead of the main trough - will graze northern Utah. A few valley rain and mountain snow showers above 7000-7500' are possible during this period, but the main focus for precipitation and accumulating mountain snow looks to be Sunday into Monday as cooler air, additional moisture, and the best jet dynamics move into the state. 

The Sunday into Monday storm event will be tied to a landfalling atmospheric river (AR), but will differ from the past AR events we have had so far this season. Could the pattern finally be shifting? Mid-level temperatures will be a bit cooler than previous AR's, with snow levels near 7000' to start late Sunday before dropping down around 6000-6500' by Monday. The cooler temperatures will help more efficient snow production in the mountains rather than bringing mountain rain/snow that has been characteristic of many storms over the past 4-6 weeks. 

ECMWF 12Z 1/2/2026 72 hr Total Precipitation Accumulation (in)

ECMWF 12Z 1/2/2026 72 hr Total Snow Accumulation (10:1 ratio) (in)

Locations favored in SW flow, like Brighton or Deer Valley, could do well with this storm. Confidence in exact accumulations on the lower end, but as of now total liquid for the Sunday through Monday storms ranges from 1-2+" in the upper Cottonwoods to PC ridgeline. Areas further north towards Snowbasin and Powder Mountain could also see amounts in a similar range. The liquid totals could translate into total snow accumulations in the range of 12-24+", however, snow totals will be heavily dependent on location and the exact timing of colder temps as this will impact snow density. 

Alta, UT total snow accumulation plume 1/2-1/9/2026 (credit: UoU Atmo Sciences)

The late weekend into early next week storm could be one of the bigger if not the biggest mountain snow producer of the season thus far. But I guess that's not really saying a lot. There is the prospect of a colder and active pattern continuing into the mid to late upcoming work week. A more typical wintertime Utah storm has been trending fairly consistently across models for the this Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. 

ECMWF 12Z (left) and GFS 12Z (right) 1/2/2026 500 mb anomalies on 1/8/2026

Both GFS and ECMWF runs have noted negative 500 mb height anomalies across the Great Basin/Utah region during this period (1/7-1/8/2026), indicating troughing and potential storm activity. There are also signs that this mid-week storm looks to come out of the NW with more a more characteristic colder polar airmass and moisture source. The Wasatch shares the love the most with storms out of the NW, so hopefully this forecast stays true... 

Alta, UT UoU GFS Ensemble Total Snow (in) 1/1-1/11/2026 (credit: UoU Atmo Sciences)

For fun, let's goggle at the the 240 hr (10 day) UoU GFS Ensemble total snow accumulation for Alta, UT 1/1-1/11/2026. The ensemble 50th percentile puts a total of 50" at Alta from now through the end of next week (1/9/2026), which is nice to hope for. Even nicer, albeit less likely, is the 90th to 100th percentile totals of 65-96", respectively. Will these numbers be reality? Most likely not, but it is fun every once in awhile to wish-cast and hope for the higher end... 

Boiling a Frog

Finally, some weather that actually feels like winter. Temperatures have been the coldest of the season thus far along the Wasatch Front yesterday and this morning. Valley temps bottomed out in the upper teens and low 20s across northern Utah, and will only warm into the low to mid 30s by this afternoon. It's nice to see a semi-fresh coat of white plastered on the mountains on a nice bluebird day.  

Top of Alta, UT looking west 12/29/2025

GOES-18 West 12/29/2026

Resorts reported storm totals of around 10-17" from the last storm cycle (probably inflated some). However, as exciting and welcoming the new snow is, the snowpack in the Wasatch still remains in very poor shape for this time of year. The fresh snow from the last storm does a good job of whitewashing and concealing the rough conditions underneath. Wind, warm temperatures, and rain up to 10,000' over the previous 10-14 days has really done a number on what was already a subpar snowpack. 

While this season technically has been drier than normal, there have been many years that have been even drier but have had higher SWE and a deeper snow pack by this time of the season. If we look at total precipitation that has fallen to date at Snowbird SNOTEL, observed precipitation is only slightly below normal amounts (86% of median - green line). Snowbird observed 13.1" this season and 12.9" total precipitation up to 12/29 in the 2025 WY. Although the total precipitation amounts are nearly equal, the SWE this season is 6.9" compared to 8.5" last year on this date. The 2025 WY had over 1.5" of more SWE than this year but had gotten less precipitation. These sort of yearly comparisons are even more pronounced at mid to low elevation sites. 

So what is going on this year?

Snowbird SNOTEL - Total precipitation accumulation (in) 2026 vs. 2025 WY

Snowbird SNOTEL - Snow water equivalent (in) 2026 vs. 2025 WY

Why is it then that there is less snow this year than previous years (like 2025) that have had the same or less precipitation? 

It comes down to the very warm and abnormal conditions. A slow but steady warming has never really given the snowpack a chance to build efficiently. Additionally, frequent ablation or melting events caused by warm temperatures and rain have plagued the snow pack this season. The pattern that has been characteristic of much of the western U.S. has not allowed much cold air to infiltrate across the region. A semi-persistent or at least stubborn ridge centered off U.S. Pacific coast has continuously diverted storms on a more northerly track and allowed warmer air to reside further north. The 500 mb composite anomaly from the 12/1-12/27/2025 period reveals positive anomalies (green/warm colors) across the western U.S. associated with the persistent ridging.  

500 gph composite anomalies 12/1-12/27/2025

Surface temperature anomalies (F) 12/1-12/29/2025

We've had storms but it's been liquid not frozen

There have been storms, but they have been associated with subtropical airmasses and moisture not polar or artic, which is what is needed for decent snow events. Therefore, the rain/snow line has been near 10,000' at times for the past few storm cycles, causing precipitation to fall as liquid rather than frozen for much of the Wasatch. Not only do you get a rain soaked snowpack but all of that liquid that could have been building the snowpack is also lost. It's a bit frustrating. 

Mid to lower elevation snow has been nearly non-existent up until this last storm. A good proportion of precipitation has fallen as liquid at these locations or has had snow that has melted out. This is an extremely and historically warm fall into winter for Utah. It will likely be the warmest on record. While other seasons have had low snowpacks, they have had them because of exceedingly dry conditions. That is the difference between this season and others. This year has be marginally drier than normal, but it is the warmth which has killed our snow in the Wasatch not the mediocre drought. 

Maybe January or February could turn the sad snow situation around? I hold out hope but my expectations are heavily hedged...

We Got Some

After what has been a bizarrely warm December, a blanket of white has finally arrived across the Salt Lake Valley and the mountains this morning. I guess Santa has come a little late, but better late than never. 

Temperatures are in the low 30s around the valley as light to moderate snow falls. Some rain may mix in at times. Coverage and intensity will decrease through the morning. However, snow showers will likely continue in the Wasatch at times - largely in the Cottonwoods - through the day. 

A second push of moisture, energy, and colder air will arrive later this afternoon as a trailing storm slides over northern Utah. During this period, mid-level winds with shift more northwesterly which should enable orographics to be enhanced in the mountains through the evening. Valley areas could see some additional snow showers as well.

I don’t think this storm event will deliver blockbuster numbers, but it could also deliver some sneaky amounts. All said and done the Wasatch resorts could see another 4-10”. Maybe skiff in the SLV.

This storm almost feels abnormal with how warm it’s been, and unfortunately things look to dry out and warm some going into the work week. Next storm on tap looks to be just after the new year.