Soonish Monsoon-ish

I have been out on another hiatus, but have found some time today to generate this post to celebrate the mid-ish point of meteorological summer (Jun 1-Aug 31). There has actually been quite a bit of interesting weather across Utah the past two months, including late season mountain snow events, dust storms, and extreme fire weather and wildfires. The record low snowpack from the winter of 2025-2026 has really had a weather Reaganomics trickle-down affect. 

Drought monitor for Utah as of July 7, 2026. 

There have been 2-3 Great Salt Lake blowing dust events across northern Utah since May 2026. Below is shows a dust event on the evening of Jun. 10, 2026 - dust sourced from the dried GSL playas - driven by northerly winds behind a cool front that sagged south over northern Utah. A more recent blowing dust event occurred on the evening of July 9, 2026, which also saw dust sourced from the same GSL playa locations as the Jun. 10 event. 

GOES-19 East True Color imagery on the evening of Jun. 10, 2026, showing blowing dust originating off the GSL and West Desert playas. 

Wildfires have been rampaging across Utah (e.g. Babylon, Iron, Cottonwood, and Cherry fires), lofting thick smoke plumes and ash into the skies. Extreme fire weather at the end of June and the significantly dry conditions and drought primed the state as a giant tinder box. I don't think many are surprised at how dire the fire season has started in Utah, considering the record low snowpack this past winter. With the smokey and dusty conditions proliferating across the state, the talk has turned to the question of "when will there be some relief?". There is potential hope on the horizon, but no guarantee. 

GOES-19 East True Color and Geofire imagery from the evening of Jun. 23, 2026, revealing the thermal hotspot signitures of the wildfires burning in Utah, Nevada, and CO and the thick smoke plumes transported westward.

By this time of summer, the buzz weather word in Utah - and the Desert Southwest in general - typically turns to "monsoon" (specifically the North American Monsoon). Everyone is giving their opinion on if the monsoon will form this year and to what degree it will produce. And now with the "Super El Nino" term being thrown in the mix, there is a lot of hype for this summer's monsoon. The monsoon is a fickle creature and even the most confident outlooks for a robust monsoon are rarely a slam dunk. For this reason, I usually am a bit more conservative with my monsoon expectations. 

North American Monsoon setup (source Colorado Climate Center)

As a brief overview, a monsoon forms due to a seasonal shift in winds due to temperature differences between land and large bodies of water. The North American Monsoon forms when an upper level high pressure circulation (clockwise spin) and surface thermal low pressure (counterclockwise spin) forms in the general vicinity of the Four Corners region or southern plains and Mojave Desert, respectively. The concurrence of these circulations allows the transport of moisture from the Gulf of California or even the Gulf of Mexico to infiltrate the Desert Southwest, allowing convection and ultimately precipitation to form. Because the winds and moisture have to align just right for areas to see increased storm and precipitation activity, the monsoon is notoriously variable and unreliable. 

For the past month and half, the North American Monsoon been forecasted to develop mid July into August, with above average precipitation forecasted across Utah. The current ensemble numerical model forecasts still are generally holding the line on that forecast, but with some modifications. Below are the ECMWF and GFS ensemble 500 mb height anomalies and surface precipitation anomalies for the period from mid to late July. Both the GFS and ECMWF outline an area of upper level high pressure establishing itself near the Four Corners region between July 17-22 and bringing moisture from the Gulf of California northward into Arizona, Nevada, Utah.  Above normal precipitation anomalies are coincident with the southerly flow around the high pressure.

12z Jul. 10, 2026 GFS Ensemble (left) and ECMWF Ensemble(right) 500 mb 5-day height anomalies

12z Jul. 10, 2026 GFS Ensemble (left) and ECMWF Ensemble (right) 7-day precipitation (in) anomalies.

Models have been fairly consistent on a monsoonal wave forming across the Desert Southwest between July 13-23. Currently, the orientation of the upper level high looks to transport moisture south to north from Arizona into Utah at times during this time. Even if this forecast verifies it does not mean there will be rain everyday everywhere across Utah during this period. It largely signifies that there is the increased potential for periods of scattered showers and storms in Utah, with precipitation being more on a localized and not broad scale level.  The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast below corresponds to the ensemble model placement of above normal precipitation anomalies. 

CPC 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook

We will wait and see how this first true monsoonal push works out for Utah in the coming 10-14 days. I don't think it will solve Utah's drought problem but there is potential for conditions to change enough that some relief will be brought in terms of blowing dust and wildfire potential. It's really a coin flip on how productive this monsoonal wave will be. Right now we can hedge our bets but hope for the best...

In the meantime, as the dome of high pressure that will eventually bring the monsoon sets up over the region, record breaking triple digit heat is expected. The next 3-5 days are forecasted to be in the 100s for northern Utah valley areas, with heat peaking on July 11-13.