Last one for a bit

Low hanging cumulostratus and light rain out there across the Salt Lake Valley this morning. Compliments of the last bit of AR energy and moisture that's grazing Utah. I'm wondering if the sun will make an appearance and things will clear up later. 

KSLC top 5 monthly total precipitation (in)

Even with the meager precipitation from this AR event - 0.17" at KSLC for the event -, Salt Lake City has broken 5" total precipitation for the month of October (5.12" as of 1600 UTC 10/27). This puts October 2025 within the top five wettest months on record. Kind of impressive.

10/27/2025 @ 1500 UTC: Observed 700 mb gph, temp (C), and winds

The coldest air - associated with a short-wave trough - is passing over the northern part of the state this morning. 700 mb temps range from -5C to -8C across the Wasatch Front, with some snow flakes mixing down as low as 6000-6500' for the central Wasatch and 5000-5500' for the northern Wasatch by late morning. However, any snow will likely focus a bit higher for each area as the bulk of the moisture will be exiting the state as the coldest temps arrive, and any accumulations at elevations below 7000' will be light or nonexistent with at least a few inches possible for the higher elevations.

GOES East True Color imagery 10/27/2025

I think the cloudiness and precipitation will largely be a morning issue as ridging and accompanying subsidence is forecasted to build in quickly behind this morning's trough. Satellite imagery showcases how sinking air (subsidence) behind the main trough axis and baroclinic zone - extending NE from northern Nevada into Utah - is creating clear conditions. In general, things look to improve and gradually clear through this afternoon. 

CPC 6-10 day temp outlook Nov. 1-5

Not much on the horizon weatherwise after Monday through the remainder of the workweek. As of now, a hardy ridge is forecasted to build across the western half of the CONUS, bringing dry and warming conditions across Utah. Temperatures look to moderate and warm a bit each day through the Halloween weekend. By Nov. 1st, temps are forecasted to be well above normal for the northern Utah valleys, with near 70 F possible for the Salt Lake Valley. Looks like cold temperatures for costumes and trick or treating won't have to be factored in this year.

Forecasted surface temperature for KSLC 10/27-11/2/2025

 

Hurricane Melissa

Pivoting quickly southeastward from the West and Utah, let's take a look at the tropics. A powerful Atlantic hurricane named Melissa swirls just south of Jamaica this morning. Hurricane Melissa has gone under rapid intensification over the weekend and now sits as a CAT 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Scale), with maximum winds at 145 kts (165 mph) within the eyewall. 

GOES East IR imagery 10/27/2025

GOES East True Color imagery 10/27/2025

Melissa's progress, at the moment, is slow to the W but is forecasted to recurve to the N-NE as it begins to interact with a mid latitude trough currently located across the eastern half of the CONUS. IR and visible satellite imagery reveals the distinct, symmetrical, and clear eye of the hurricane. Specifically, the darker colors in the IR imagery identify the intense convection surrounding the eye - colder temperatures associated with high clouds and deep convection - which correlates to the significant strength of the hurricane.

NHC Hurricane Melissa forecast cone

Melissa will likely undergo some changes in the next 24hrs, but is forecasted to remain a major hurricane as it makes landfall with Jamaica and Cuba over the next two days. Significant impacts for those areas. The storm intensity will weaken as it makes landfall, with some slight restrengthening once the hurricane passes back over water near the Bahamas later this week. Once Melissa makes it's way north of the Bahamas, it's progress will accelerate to the NE and be taken out to sea. It will likely weaken further as it passes over cooler sea surface temps and encounters some upper-level wind shear.