Slowvember

The State of the Snowpack - Utah

Before I get into the current weather and conditions going forward, I want to talk about the state of weather and snowpack affairs so far this November. To put it simply, this season has gotten off to a very slow start. November has been exceptionally dry and warm across northern Utah, and the snowpack in the Wasatch reflects that. Thus far, November 2025 is the warmest November on record in Salt Lake City, with an average (max_temp+min_temp/2) of 50.8 F. This is about 8 degrees above normal. Additionally, the area has only received about 1/3rd the total precip for the month. 

KSLC November Numbers

Month-to-Date Summary	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Avg Max Temperature	60.3	52.2	60.8 in 1965	37.0 in 2000
Avg Min Temperature	41.3	33.8	41.3 in 2025	21.0 in 1930
Avg Temperature	50.8	43.0	50.8 in 2025	30.0 in 2000
Total Precipitation	0.37	1.05	5.05 in 1875	0.00 in 1914
Total Snowfall	0.0	5.0	27.8 in 1886	0.0 in 2025

Average November temperatures (F) at KSLC 1875-2025. Red star represents 2025 November average temp through 11/24/2025. 

So how do the snowpack numbers look? Currently, snow water equivalent (SWE) numbers are sitting at abysmal near nonexistent depths at the higher elevation SNOTEL sites in the Wasatch and central mountains. Basin and site SWE percent of normal are anywhere from 0-40% of average (median).

NRCS snow water equivalent percent of normal at Utah SNOTEL sites and Basin wide 

The only locations that have come out on top this November are the southern Utah mountains, where the previous few storm cycles have favored those areas. But how does this early season snowpack rank in terms of the past few years?

Looking back on the late November SWE from 2021-2024 (WY's 2022-2025), the majority of the years have had an objectively slow start. The only year with above normal SWE in late November was 2022 (WY 2023). If we're trying to compare 2025 to other years, the current 2025 SWE over northern Utah is most comparable to 2021 (WY 2022). 

But is early season SWE a predictor of how the entire winter will unfold? 

Let's look at two popular Utah SNOTEL sites in the Wasatch - Brighton and Snowbird - over the years 2021-2025 to identify if the early season SWE numbers can act as a gauge for SWE over the course of the winter. In the figures below, the SWE for water years 2022-2026 - e.g. water year 2022 goes Oct. 2021 - Oct. 2022 - and November SWE for the years 2021-2025 are given for the Brighton and Snowbird SNOTEL sites. The highest SWE WY and November SWE are highlighted in red.

In terms of WY SWE and November SWE at Brighton and Snowbird 2021-2025, both WY and November SWE numbers are ranked the same 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2022 (greatest SWE to least). If we were to take meaning from this overly simplified analysis, the results allude that the higher the early season SWE the more likely it is to have a winter with a greater maximum SWE (more snow). 

November SWE vs. Water Year (WY) SWE at Snowbird SNOTEL 2015-2025. Red star represents 2025 numbers. Trend line and R squared value are shown. 

Taking this a step further and expanding the analysis to 2015-2025, I plotted the November SWE vs. the water year SWE at Snowbird (above). Obviously, this analysis is still only from a small sample size and there are many assumptions and variables left out of play, so lots of caveats here and not to be taken super seriously. Either way, the trend/relationship is moderately strong (R squared = 0.544). This is not exactly comforting if the above relationship holds true for the winter 2025-2026. Maybe 2025 will be a wildcard...?

Current and Future Conditions

At this time yesterday, the Salt Lake Valley was socked in with fog and low stratus complements of inversion conditions. This morning the skies have partially cleared over Salt Lake thanks to a slight weakening of the low-level inversion and some venting caused by increased NW winds near 750-700mb as seen in the Nov. 24th sounding below.

View of downtown SLC looking west on the morning of Nov. 23 (top left) and Nov. 24 (top right), with corresponding sounding from KSLC. Inversion depth and 700mb winds are noted on soundings

GOES-East 11/24/2025 Nighttime Microphysics: Bright yellow colors represent low clouds and fog

Nevertheless, some fog and low status remains across other northern Utah valley areas. Air quality also remains moderate for areas, with elevated PM2.5. Fortunately, some relief may be in store later today as a weak dry cold front slides across the state. 

Analyzed 300 mb heights, winds, and divergence 11/24/2025

A shortwave trough will progress across Idaho and Montana Monday, with the base of the trough grazing Utah. Although, most energy and moisture will remain north of the state, a weak cold front will slide south over Utah this afternoon through Tuesday morning. This will be a dry cold front, with the main impacts being a bit cooler temperatures and winds to help mix out inversion conditions and the associated fog and stratus. A transitory ridge builds over the state Tuesday through Thanksgiving, bringing warmer temperatures and a mix of clouds and sun the remainder of the week. Some light haze may reinstate itself under the ridge. 

ECMWF 12Z 11/24/2025 four-panel forecast 11/24-12/1/2025: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness; 300 mb gph and winds; ; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds; 700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds

Looking forward to late this week/weekend, there are indications a few systems may track through northern Utah bringing periods of valley and mountain rain/snow. However, there are a wide range of model solutions for these storms, with some splitting the storm and others only having grazing impacts to Utah. I feel like this is only par for the course for how things have panned out this past month. Not holding my breath for this weekend but holding onto some hope. I can feel the frustration with skiers and snow lovers. People are itching to get out, but there is literally not even scraps. We need snow/rain...