Not much

High cirrus shielding the morning sun

Another warm one out there this morning across the Salt Lake Valley, with some mildly breezy winds out of the south. A blanket of high thin cirrus clouds cover the sky, which usually can be indicative of a potential change in the weather. The high clouds and the relatively breezy conditions overnight likely aided in keeping things warmer than they would have been if winds were calm and skies were clear. Most areas in the SLV bottomed out in the upper 40s/low 50s which is 10-15 degrees above the normal low for this time of year. I have enjoyed the warm start to November thus far. Mild and dry weather with mostly clear skies and fall colors in the valley can't be beat.  In my opinion, these are the best sort of conditions to do outdoor activities in the valley and foothills. 

Unfortunately, the high cirrus across northern Utah this morning are indeed a sign of change. A broad long-wave trough is currently making landfall off  the Pacific into the interior of the PNW. The trough is associated with a mid-intensity AR, bringing heavy rain and mountain snow to the northern Sierras up through British Colombia. Some of this moisture and energy is forecasted to progress over the Intermountain West and into northern Utah come late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. However, not expecting much as this weak system clips Utah overnight. 

GOES-West 11/5/2025 water vapor imagery

A cold front along with some showers will move into northern Utah come the second half of Wednesday night. The Wasatch Front valley areas could see a few light rain showers the during this time up until the morning commute, mainly focused towards the ID/UT border where better dynamics and moisture will reside. Areas south towards the SLV and Utah County will miss out on the 'bulk' of the moisture. All models are fairly consistent that total liquid amounts will be light, with the 50th percentile ensemble ECMWF and GFS forecasting 0.1-0.2" for the far northern Utah valleys and mountains. Otherwise, I would be impressed if areas like the SLV get enough precip to even fully wet the ground. 

ECMWF Ensemble 00Z 11/5/2025 : Total precipitation (in) at Alta, UT

The higher elevations across the Wasatch could see some light snow >6500-7000' for the Bear River mountains and >7000-7500' for the central Wasatch. Total snowfall amounts will range from dustings+ in the central Wasatch to 1-2" for the higher peaks in the Bear River mountains. So meager pickings in terms of winter weather...

Forecasted surface temp (F) at KSLC 11/5-11/12/2025

Thursday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than the unseasonably warm temps today (Wednesday), but will actually be near normal for this time of year. Dry air and a short-wave ridge will bring a mix of clouds and sun to Utah Thursday morning into the afternoon. A trailing short-wave trough and attendant moisture will move into the northern tier of the State come late Thursday into Friday, but impacts will be minimal to nil. Likely just bringing some cloud cover and keeping temps similar to Thursday. Beyond this workweek, things look to gradually warm back up over the weekend into early next week as a fairly amplified ridge sets over Utah. 

Long-range

Typically, this time of year when attempting to gauge what the longer range weather has in store we like to look at the forecasted trends of certain climate oscillations or teleconnections. The most common climate oscillation or teleconnection that people are familiar with is ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). However, as much as the news and skiers alike love to talk about El Nino/La Nina and what that means for Utah's winters, the ENSO impact/signal for northern Utah is weak or even can be considered indeterminant. If you were to really try and parse out any ENSO trends across northern Utah, there is a weak positive snowfall anomaly signal during La Nina years for the Wasatch. But even this isn't that meaningful and shouldn't be read into. On average, there's about a 50/50 chance that the Wasatch will have a wetter/drier winter during both El Nino or La Nina. 

CPC Dec, Jan, Feb La Nina Average Snow Anomalies (in) and frequency of occurrence

For the reasons above, ENSO is not the best teleconnection to analyze when attempting to conduct seasonal or even monthly long-range forecasts for northern Utah. Other oscillations such as the Pacific North American (PNA) oscillation are much more influential and impactful for Utah weather due to the synoptic pattern they describe and relatively shorter timescale of influence. The PNA describes the large scale upper-level pattern across the eastern Pacific/western North America. When the PNA has a negative signal that represents troughing across western North America and vis versa for a positive PNA signal. Troughing across western North America indicates a pattern that is conducive for bringing storm tracks down from the Gulf of Alaska/western Canada into Utah. Therefore, a negative PNA can indicate an active storm pattern across the western CONUS. 

ECMWF 12Z 11/5/2025 forecasted PNA signal

Models have trended fairly consistently that deeper troughing and a more significant pattern change is possible come mid to late next workweek. Forecasted trends reveal the PNA is likely to go negative come mid to late month. What this means? Without trying to rub the forecasting crystal ball too hard, the long range and forecasted PNA alludes to a more extended period of active weather across the Western CONUS mid to late November... But don't want to wish cast so that is still heavily tbd...

ECMWF Ensemble 12Z 11/5/2025: 7-day precipitation anomaly (11/13-11/20/2025)

Warmvember

De javu... Looking out across the Salt Lake Valley this morning, and it looks fairly similar to yesterday. There is a upper-level vorticity lobe and shortwave trough progressing across Utah, but with no significant coincident moisture northern Utah is only seeing a few high cirrus clouds associated with this "disturbance". 

High clouds northern Utah 11/3/2025 (credit EB)

Surface temps aren't even being impacted by the cooler upper-level air at the center of the trough due to the presence of a low to mid-level thermal ridge undercutting the upper-level shortwave trough. The vorticity lobe (cyclonic spin) can clearly be identified in the satellite water vapor imagery. 

GOES East water vapor 11/3/2025 with analyzed 500 mb gph, winds, and vorticity overlaid

Besides this benign upper-level feature, it is unseasonably warm, clear, and calm this morning in SLC. Times like this are when a persistence forecast - forecasting the same weather for tomorrow as what is occurring today - would work very well. All of us in Utah can thank the longwave upper-level ridge that has been planted overhead for the past 4-5 days for the great mid-fall weather. 

11/3/2025 12Z 500 mb gph, temp, and observed winds

Because there isn't much weather going on, let me give a brief overview of why we associate ridges and high pressure with nice weather. Ridges are typically associated with nice weather due to the upper-level dynamics associated with them. Under a ridge, air often converges or piles up due to force imbalances on air parcels traveling in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. The principles of conservation of mass or more specifically the continuity equation in the atmosphere dictate that the change of mass within a given volume of air is equal to the net mass flow into or out of that volume. Therefore, as air converges (added to the closed volume) mass or air needs to be removed to balance. This leads to the net effect of a sinking motion below where air converges (subsidence), and sinking air dries and warms due to adiabatic processes (thermodynamic process where no heat is transferred into or out of a system). 

Air rises/sinks at the adiabatic lapse rate (~ 10 C/km) (credit Brit Seifert)

Simply put, as the air sinks it encounters an environment with higher pressure and the air parcel compresses. This is due to the relationship where pressure decreases logarithmically with height above the surface and vis versa as you decrease height above the surface. As the air sinks and is compressed, it's temperature increases due to the temperature, pressure, and density relationship described by the ideal gas law P = qRT or T = P/qR (P = pressure, T = temp, q = density of dry air, and R = dry air constant), which reveals that as pressure increases temperature of the sinking air parcel will increase. 

Given that an air parcel's moisture remains the same, a sinking air parcel warms but it's dew point remains the same. The difference between the air parcel's temperature and dew point increases (dew point depression) as the air sinks towards the surface, which aids in creating cloudless skies. 

11/3/2025 12Z KSLC sounding: dew pt. (green) and temperature (red)

This morning's sounding from KSLC showcases this concept in real life. If you look at the green (dew pt) and red (temp) lines in the sounding figure above, a large spread or difference between the two lines is apparent below about 400 mb down to the surface, indicating the drying effect of subsiding/sinking air. Just for reference, the proximity of the green and red lines near 400 mb to about 250 mb indicates the high cirrus cloud layer. Subsidence this time of year can also create warmer layers overtop cooler air pooled in valley areas, which can create inversion conditions conducive for poor air quality.

ECMWF 00Z 11/3/2025 four-panel forecast for 11/3-11/10/2025: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness;700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; 300 mb gph and winds; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds

A few pieces of energy look to graze Utah come mid to late workweek, which will break down the ridge currently overhead and allow for some cooler temperatures (but not cold) and possibly even a bit of precipitation for northern portions of Utah. However, it's likely that most areas - particularly the Wasatch Front valleys - will largely just see increased cloud cover but some light precip isn't out of the question. Peering further ahead, ridging is forecasted to build back for this upcoming weekend into the beginning of next workweek, so more mild November weather is possible. 

11/3/2025 00Z GFS Ensemble Total precipitation at KSLC: Green line is ensemble average; Blue line is control run

Many are probably wondering, when will Utah get some actual winter weather again? Model ensembles have all be hinting at a pattern shift come mid-month (~ 11/14 ish) and potentially sometime towards the later half of the month as well. Definitely too far out in forecasting fantasy land to talk about possible impacts during these periods, but it is likely some sort activity will occur. For now, every skier and snow lover should do some breathing exercises and be patient...

Quiet plus haze

Tropics

Nothing much going out there in the skies over Utah today. Quite the opposite for the areas in the Caribbean. Hurricane Melissa is currently impacting eastern Cuba as a weakened but still strong hurricane. Damage across Jamaica probably won't be totally assessed until later this week/weekend as power and internet comes back online. Satellite imagery from Melissa yesterday - 10/28/2025 - showed a textbook example of an annular (donut-like) hurricane.

The symmetrical nature of the storm was quite mesmerizing and revealing of it's strength. Top winds just before landfall reached 185 mph, which ranks the storm as the second highest wind speed ever recorded from an Atlantic hurricane and ties Melissa for the strongest Atlantic hurricane to ever make landfall. Melissa's lowest central pressure of 892 mb ties for third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. 

Utah

Another cold crisp morning in Salt Lake City. Not a cloud in sight over Utah. KSLC didn't break freezing this morning - low only got to 34 F - but they break freezing yesterday morning, with a low of 30 F. First frost/dip below freezing for the season for the Salt Lake Valley. The average date the SLV sees low temperatures reach freezing or below is Oct. 20, so a bit later than average but pretty close to on track. 

KSLC Min, Max and Average first and last freeze days (<= 32 F)

Minimum	Mar-07 (2017)	Sep-13 (1928)
Mean	Apr-22	Oct-20
Maximum	Jun-06 (1914)	Nov-17 (2021)

Not surprisingly, the state of Utah cold spot yesterday - 10/28/2025 - was Peter Sinks, with a low of -10 F. Peter sinks is a small crater like area in the far northern Wasatch/Bear River mountains that pools cold air easily and commonly can be the coldest spot in Utah and even the CONUS. 

Observed temp (F) at Peter Sinks on 10/28/2025

Ridging has quickly established itself  after our mild AR event this past weekend.  Warming mid-level temps associated with the ridge has already created inverted conditions across the Wasatch Front. The sounding from KSLC this morning reveals an inversion and stable conditions up to and above 700 mb, where there is a fairly obvious warm-nose (area of high temps). The consequence? Air quality will gradually degrade over as pollutants build up below the inversion and a haze will begin to blanket the SLV.

1800Z 10/29/2025 - Observed 500mb ghp, temp (C), and winds

KSLC 12Z 10/29/2025 sounding - temp (red) and dewpt (green)

Besides a grazing dry cool front overnight Wednesday into Thursday, there is nothing on the horizon weatherwise for Utah through the upcoming weekend. The cool front won't change things much, with haze likely continuing to build. Warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected through at least the next 5 days. There are hints of a trough and cold front moving through Utah sometime around 11/6/2025, but too far out to say with any confidence. Personally, I will be enjoying the abnormally warm start to November with temps in the 60s and sunshine before winter decides to set in... 

*I want to add a quick correction to a previous post about the ranked top five monthly total precipitation for KSLC. Here are the correct top five wettest months on record:

Melissa

Weather history is currently unfolding in the central Caribbean. Hurricane Melissa is beginning to make landfall on the southwestern coast of Jamaica as a CAT 5 hurricane (winds  > 157 mph). It's central pressure is 892 mb - a drop of about 10-12 mb since yesterday morning - and has maximum surface winds of 160 kts (~ 180 mph). IR and visible satellite imagery from this morning (10/28/2025) reveals an extremely intense hurricane. The symmetry and clarity of the eye in the both the IR and visible are obvious, which is one indicative sign of a very strong storm.

GOES East True Color imagery 10/28/2025

GOES East IR imagery 10/28/2025

Up until the past 12-24 hrs, Melissa's movement had been nearly stagnant as it spun off the coast of Jamaica for more than two days. The slow moving nature of Melissa - in close proximity to Jamaica up until this point - has inundated the island with relentless rainfall, and with more rain on the way catastrophic flooding is very possible. Total precipitation amounts could top out around 30".

NHC Probabilities of the hurricane-force wind speeds

One silver lining of this hurricane is that is compact and the strongest of the hurricane force winds lie within a focused area around the eyewall. In other words, not all of Jamaica will be impacted by 180+ mph winds. Nevertheless, this is an extremely dangerous situation for the island nation. This could be the most powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in Jamaica.

ECMWF 00Z 10/28/2025 four-panel forecast for 10/28-11/1/2025: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness;700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; 300 mb gph and winds; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds

Melissa will progress over Jamaica on Tuesday before briefly crossing open water and making landfall across far eastern Cuba sometime Wednesday. At that point, Melissa will likely be weakened due to interactions with land but still could be a strong hurricane. The storm track will accelerate rapidly to the NE after Wednesday as the hurricane begins to interact with a deep trough across the SE CONUS. Strong upper-level wind shear - associated with the upper-level trough and corresponding jet streak - and cooler ocean water temperatures will also aid in weakening the hurricane. There could be some interaction between the trough and hurricane remnants along the NE U.S. seaboard come late week into the weekend, but that is tbd...

ECMWF 00Z 10/28/25 Ensemble tracks for Hurricane Melissa

Last one for a bit

Low hanging cumulostratus and light rain out there across the Salt Lake Valley this morning. Compliments of the last bit of AR energy and moisture that's grazing Utah. I'm wondering if the sun will make an appearance and things will clear up later. 

KSLC top 5 monthly total precipitation (in)

Even with the meager precipitation from this AR event - 0.17" at KSLC for the event -, Salt Lake City has broken 5" total precipitation for the month of October (5.12" as of 1600 UTC 10/27). This puts October 2025 within the top five wettest months on record. Kind of impressive.

10/27/2025 @ 1500 UTC: Observed 700 mb gph, temp (C), and winds

The coldest air - associated with a short-wave trough - is passing over the northern part of the state this morning. 700 mb temps range from -5C to -8C across the Wasatch Front, with some snow flakes mixing down as low as 6000-6500' for the central Wasatch and 5000-5500' for the northern Wasatch by late morning. However, any snow will likely focus a bit higher for each area as the bulk of the moisture will be exiting the state as the coldest temps arrive, and any accumulations at elevations below 7000' will be light or nonexistent with at least a few inches possible for the higher elevations.

GOES East True Color imagery 10/27/2025

I think the cloudiness and precipitation will largely be a morning issue as ridging and accompanying subsidence is forecasted to build in quickly behind this morning's trough. Satellite imagery showcases how sinking air (subsidence) behind the main trough axis and baroclinic zone - extending NE from northern Nevada into Utah - is creating clear conditions. In general, things look to improve and gradually clear through this afternoon. 

CPC 6-10 day temp outlook Nov. 1-5

Not much on the horizon weatherwise after Monday through the remainder of the workweek. As of now, a hardy ridge is forecasted to build across the western half of the CONUS, bringing dry and warming conditions across Utah. Temperatures look to moderate and warm a bit each day through the Halloween weekend. By Nov. 1st, temps are forecasted to be well above normal for the northern Utah valleys, with near 70 F possible for the Salt Lake Valley. Looks like cold temperatures for costumes and trick or treating won't have to be factored in this year.

Forecasted surface temperature for KSLC 10/27-11/2/2025

 

Hurricane Melissa

Pivoting quickly southeastward from the West and Utah, let's take a look at the tropics. A powerful Atlantic hurricane named Melissa swirls just south of Jamaica this morning. Hurricane Melissa has gone under rapid intensification over the weekend and now sits as a CAT 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Scale), with maximum winds at 145 kts (165 mph) within the eyewall. 

GOES East IR imagery 10/27/2025

GOES East True Color imagery 10/27/2025

Melissa's progress, at the moment, is slow to the W but is forecasted to recurve to the N-NE as it begins to interact with a mid latitude trough currently located across the eastern half of the CONUS. IR and visible satellite imagery reveals the distinct, symmetrical, and clear eye of the hurricane. Specifically, the darker colors in the IR imagery identify the intense convection surrounding the eye - colder temperatures associated with high clouds and deep convection - which correlates to the significant strength of the hurricane.

NHC Hurricane Melissa forecast cone

Melissa will likely undergo some changes in the next 24hrs, but is forecasted to remain a major hurricane as it makes landfall with Jamaica and Cuba over the next two days. Significant impacts for those areas. The storm intensity will weaken as it makes landfall, with some slight restrengthening once the hurricane passes back over water near the Bahamas later this week. Once Melissa makes it's way north of the Bahamas, it's progress will accelerate to the NE and be taken out to sea. It will likely weaken further as it passes over cooler sea surface temps and encounters some upper-level wind shear. 

AR Tease

The mornings as of late have finally gotten that touch of chill characteristic of mid fall. This morning was no different. Not much going on out there, with clear skies and calm winds. Seems to be the precursor to a typical fall day. The light haze we had Wednesday and Thursday has finally dispersed. We can thank some northerly near surface winds yesterday afternoon for sweeping the pollution out of the Salt Lake Valley. Ceilometer data from a site in the northern SLV near the airport reveals how the pollution cleared out of the area once winds shifted N-NW and picked up in the afternoon. 

Top: Observed KSLC wind speed/direction 10/23-10/24/2025; Bottom: Ceilometer reflectivity 10/23-10/24 from the Utah Tech Center (norther SLV).

Friday-Saturday

The closed upper-level low that impacted the state yesterday has exited to the east, with a short-wave ridge following in it's wake and building across Utah today (Friday). Conditions are expected to be clear, calm, and relatively warm Friday, with temps topping out in the mid-60s for the northern Utah valley areas, which is near normal for this time of year. Ridging remains through the first half of Saturday before the upper-level pattern will begin to transition into a more active pattern. Temps will be a few degrees above normal Saturday along the Wasatch Front and winds will become a bit breezy in the afternoon as warm air advection precedes the weekend storm.

Observed 500 mb gph and temperatures (C)

A broad Pacific trough and stream of moisture (atmospheric river (AR)) is currently making landfall along the PNW coast. A short-wave trough and surface low embedded in the larger scale trough will move inland today through Saturday. Models have been tracking the center of this trough across the interior northwest into Idaho and Montana by late Saturday. 

Saturday - Monday

There is still some uncertainty about how shallow or deep the trough digs into the Great Basin and Intermountain West region. Currently, models are taking the system on a more northerly track, with only grazing impacts across Utah. This means the bulk of the moisture and colder air are forecasted to miss Utah late Saturday into Sunday. However, a strong 140 kt jet and stronger area of baroclinicity is forecasted to progress into the far reaches of the state near the Idaho border, which could provide better dynamical forcing for precipitation for Bear River mountains and Cache Valley.

ECMWF 00Z 10/24/2025 four-panel forecast for 10/24-10/28/2025: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness;700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; 300 mb gph and winds; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds

The northern third of the state looks to have the best opportunity for some rain/snow showers Saturday evening through Sunday, with a cold front moving across the area at the same time. Guidance has trended warmer with the air that moves in behind the cold front, so not looking lower elevations to get in on the snow action. Snow levels look to remain above mid elevation areas ( >6500-7000'), but could come down a bit lower across the far northern portions of the state. In general, Utah forecasted to only get a kiss from this AR event, with the Utah/Idaho border area getting the most precipitation. Central Wasatch areas - Cottonwoods - currently look to get meager pickings in terms of liquid/snow. 

ECMWF 06Z 10/24/2025 Ensemble Total Snow Accumulation at Alta, UT

It's very likely that details of this forecast will continue to shift, so it is difficult to put numbers on precip and snow amounts this weekend. But for the sake of curiosity, let's look at the ensembles - collection of multiple model runs with slightly varying input conditions - for Alta, UT. Essentially, the ensembles spell out a bit of a bleak future in terms of snow for the upper central Wasatch, with a few inches of snow late Saturday into Sunday/Monday the most likely solution at the moment. 

Beyond

While Utah will likely miss out on the AR party this weekend, the flood gates will open for the PNW with a wave train of multiple systems moving into the region through the middle of next workweek. Utah may get a bit more energy and moisture from one of these systems late Sunday into Monday, but not expecting anything super significant. I think the more interesting thing is if this storm squeezes out enough liquid to help SLC break 5" total precipitation for the month of October. As of now, KSLC sits at 4.95" which already smashes the old monthly record. Just need a little more...

ECMWF Extended Ensemble 00Z 10/23/2025: 7-Day Precipitation anomalies Oct. 23-Nov. 1

It's difficult to say what will happen beyond early next week, but there are hints that a decent period of ridging accompanied by dry and relatively warm weather will settle in across the Great Basin and Utah the middle of next week through the first week of November. So looking like warmvember to start... 

ECMWF Extended Ensemble 00Z 10/23/2025: 7-Day 500 mb gph anomalies Oct. 31-Nov. 7

AR Flavor

KSLC 12Z 10/22/2025 sounding skew-t: temp (red), dew pt. (green), and winds

Not a cloud in sight out there earlier this morning, but a very light haze does seem to have developed over the Salt Lake Valley. If one is thinking it will be repeat of yesterday's conditions for the northern Utah valleys - sunny with a high in the low 60s - then they would be mostly correct. The light haze can be blamed on the marginal cold air pooling and ridging over Utah. 

At this time of year, strong radiational cooling overnight really takes off on clear calm nights. This creates a near surface nocturnal temperature inversion that is difficult to erode with weaker solar heating due to the lower sun angle. When you add a subsidence inversion due to ridging/high pressure on top of that, it easily creates stagnate conditions where pollutants can build up. A quick look at the sounding obs from KSLC this morning (10/22/2025) reveals an inversion over the SLV from the surface to about 775 mb (~1000 m deep). The weather today will be close to yesterday's, with a slight variation due to a weak system progressing into the region. 

GOES East True Color 10/22/2025 with 500 mb Rap analysis overlaid

Satellite imagery this morning shows a closed upper-level low rotates just off the So Cal coast, with Utah lying downstream of the upper-level trough axis. Not much cold air or moisture is associated with this system, but the low will shift onshore through the day, spreading clouds northward into Utah. Clouds will increase over the course of the day for northern portions of the state. As the system translates inland across the Mojave Desert a few scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms are possible for the southern 2/3rd's of the state going into the afternoon. Weak upper-level forcing and limited moisture will largely hamper any organized shower or storm development, however, some instability due to surface heating this afternoon will aid in forming some disorganized precipitation. Shower activity will focus across the higher terrain. 

ECMWF 00Z 10/22/2025 forecasted precipitation for 00Z 10/23/2025 (1800 MDT)

The closed low continues to translate across the southern tier of the state tonight through Thursday, spreading more low to mid-level moisture into the state. A few isolated showers may make their way as far north as the Wasatch Front by Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. However, the focus of shower/storm activity will remain over the southern half of the state. The northern valley areas will likely just remain dry. Isolated showers/storms, focused over the higher terrain and SE Utah, continue Thursday before the low exits the state by Friday morning. 

The Weekend

Going into the weekend it looks like the weather gets a bit more interesting. After the passage of the closed low, a short-wave ridge quickly migrates over Utah, bringing southerly flow and warm air advection Friday through Saturday. In effect, this will create for some nice sunny and relatively warm fall days, with some breezy southerly winds come Saturday. 

Model forecasted surface temperature (F) for the SLC

The short-wave ridge is 'short' lived though, with a broad Pacific trough proceeding closely behind it. The trough looks to be associated with an Atmospheric River (AR), which is defined as a concentrated or focused region of atmospheric moisture transport from the lower to higher latitudes. AR events are difficult to forecast due to their complex nature and lack of observations over the oceans - where AR's originate. 

ECMWF 00Z 10/22/2025 four-panel forecast for 10/24-10/28/2025: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness;700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; 300 mb gph and winds; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds

I think going into detail about how this AR is forecasted to impact Utah this weekend would be unwise at this point. But I will attempt to outline the potential timing and impacts from this system. Models have been trending on a solution that brings moisture and energy from the AR/trough across northern Utah sometime Saturday night into Sunday morning. This means a cold front along with precipitation will likely pass over the SLV the second half of this weekend. 

How much moisture makes it into the state is highly suspect and will change with each new forecast model run, so I would not get hung up on amounts at this point. The bulk of the moisture looks to miss Utah as of now. Like I mentioned, forecasting AR events are difficult. It's analogous to determining the movement of an unattended fire hose spraying water. Modeled integrated vapor transport shows the main region of moisture transport associated with the AR. It seems that due to terrain and trough characteristics the moisture field breaks up some upon landfall, with a more dispersed and weakened moisture field making it's way into Utah late Saturday into Sunday. 

ECMWF 00Z 10/22/2025 forecasted integrated vapor transport (IVT) through this weekend

Some rain likely for the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels could potentially be pretty low (~5500-6000'), depending how how the trough tracks across the state. Temperatures will take a quick dip Sunday, with highs in the SLV 20-25 degrees cooler than Saturday only maxing out near 50F. A few additional bouts of energy and moisture associated with the AR are possible through early next week, keeping cooler air in place and bringing periods of showers into the state. However, there is a high probability of details changing during this period so there will likely be updates to this. Anyway, a period of unsettled and cooler weather is possible the second half of this weekend into early next week. Keep the liquid coming. Utah needs it...

Quick cool down

Clear day to start the second half of the weekend. An upper-level ridge still remains over Utah, aiding in another dry and relatively warm day across the state. May be the last day that is this warm this year. Typically, temps really start ratcheting down m as daylight hours shorten quickly.

A trough and cold front are currently progressing from PNW into the interior, which will flatten the ridge through Sunday but increase mild southerly flow across Utah. Temps will top out in the 60s and 70s in valley areas across the state, with breezy winds out of the south this afternoon. 

The trough is forecasted to move eastward Sunday into Monday morning, but will largely skirt north of Utah. The cold front and a bit of moisture will graze the northern third of the state overnight, bringing cooler air and the opportunity for a few showers across the northern valleys and mountains in the early morning hours. Snow levels look to be around 7500-8000’, but most of the moisture will have moved on before the coolest temps arrive. Potential for 1-3” in the higher elevations of the Wasatch. This is a quick moving system, so not expecting much in terms of liquid or impacts.

A ridge quickly reestablishes itself late Monday into Tuesday. Temps rebound some and conditions look to be dry. Not much excitement through the remainder of the workweek. Just keeping an eye on a mid week disturbance across the southern half of the state, but not too much expected out of that. Hints of a more significant storm for this next weekend. However, still out too far out to talk about with any sort of confidence…

Setting Records

I woke up this morning to signs of rain overnight. Windows had droplets, smell of wet ground, and also the subtle smell of the GSL gases. When I checked yesterday morning, the October 2025 monthly total precipitation was already within the top five wettest Octobers on record, so obviously I wanted to check on where SLC ranked this morning after potentially more rain overnight. As of yesterday's and last night's rainfall (0.83"), Salt Lake City has broken the October monthly record for total precipitation (4.31"). This is a fairly large number for only being halfway through the month. With more liquid on the way today through tomorrow and whatever the remainder of the month bring, I am interested in where SLC will end the month at. 

So how much more precip are we going to get with unsettled weather forecasted the next couple of days? 

Wednesday 10/15/2025

An occluded Pacific system/low located over Nevada will translate north and east through Utah today (Wednesday). Utah sits downstream of the low, with deep and relatively moist southwesterly flow across the state. 

GOES East True Color imagery on 10/15/2025 with 500mb analysis overlaid

The Pacific air mass associated with the system has been highly modified and the stronger baroclinic characteristics of the storm have been somewhat muted. However, a cooler air mass still remains under the center of the low, with an attendant cold front now located over central and southwestern Utah. As the low progresses E-NE through Utah on Wednesday, this cold front will move across the Wasatch front late morning into the afternoon. Cooler air along with precipitation will fill into the state as the cold front moves over. Rainfall will generally be light to moderate for areas, with a few opportunities for heavier showers if clouds part and the sun is able to destabilize things a bit. 

Thursday 

The trough axis (center of the trough) looks to pass over northern Utah sometime overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. By this point, the main moisture field with be exiting the state but trailing wrap-around moisture and energy will filter in from the W-NW. Cooler mid to upper-level temperatures combined with surface heating will aid in some cold-core shower/thunderstorm development through the day. Most precipitation will be light and scattered. 

ECMWF 00Z 10/15 four-panel forecast for 10/16/2025 @ 12Z: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness;700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; 300 mb gph and winds; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds

Mid to upper-level winds look to shift NW on Thursday, bringing more favorable conditions for some scattered upslope showers in the mountains. However,  Thursday morning 700 mb temperature drop to -4 to -5C under the core of the low, so the snow line will likely be somewhere near 6500-7000' early Thursday morning before rising to around 7000-7500' by the afternoon. 

ECWMF 00Z 10/15/2025 forecasted 10/16 12Z 700mb temperature

Another few inches of snow for the higher elevations across most of the state. Hard to say exactly how much the Cottonwoods will get due to the fairly disorganized nature and unfavorable conditions for much of the storm. However, most guidance puts down about 3-6" of snow for locations > 8000'.

ECMWF 00Z 10/15/2025 forecasted total precipitation (in) 10/15-10/17/2025 00Z

All said and done SLC is forecasted to get anywhere between 0.5-1" of additional rainfall between Wednesday and Thursday, with the highest accumulations expected along an arc spanning the west to north to east perimeter of the SLV. Much of the central SLV may get shadowed due to the flow direction associated with the storm.  

Beyond 

ECMWF 00Z 10/15 four-panel forecast for 10/19/2025 @ 06Z: (Top left to bottom right) MSLP/precip and 1000-500 mb thickness;700 mb gph, RH, temp, and winds; 300 mb gph and winds; 500 mb gph, vorticity, and winds

Conditions dry out by Friday, but cooler air remains in place across the state, with highs in the upper 50s for the northern valleys. Temperatures moderate each day going into the weekend as a ridge builds over the Great Basin. Next storm looks to impact the state early next week. However, there's plenty of uncertainty about the track and strength, and models have been trending drier and warmer with this storm. So far, I have been enjoying the relative storminess intermixed with periods of nice fall weather. Still hasn't got too cold yet..

KSLC observed and forecasted temperature (F) 10/15-10/22/2025